With their 20-16 loss to the Houston Texans this past Saturday, the Los Angeles Chargers were officially eliminated from the AFC West race, which also eliminated the Bolts from the race for the No. 1 seed, which can now only be won by the Denver Broncos, the New England Patriots, or the Jacksonville Jaguars.
The Bolts, of course, will square off with the Broncos in Week 18, albeit without Justin Herbert under center, as Jim Harbaugh is opting to rest his Pro Bowl quarterback (and likely several other starters) ahead of the Wild Card Round.
As for whom the Chargers will play in that opening round, that's still yet to be determined, as the overall AFC playoff picture could see all sorts of movement depending on how the weekend plays out. So, before we get to where the Bolts could end up, let's have a look at the standings heading into what's bound to be a wild final week of the regular season. (* --Clinched Playoff Berth,** --Clinched Division)
- Denver Broncos (13-3**, 1st AFC West)
- New England Patriots (13-3**, 1st AFC East)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4*, 1st AFC South)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7, 1st AFC North)
- Houston Texans (11-5*, 2nd AFC South)
- Los Angeles Chargers (11-5*, 2nd AFC West)
- Buffalo Bills (11-5*, 2nd AFC East)
- Baltimore Ravens (8-8, 2nd AFC North)
As you can see, the only remaining playoff spot is reserved for the winner of the AFC North, which will be determined on Sunday night when the Baltimore Ravens take on the Pittsburgh Steelers, with the victor claiming the No. 4 seed and the loser going home for the season.
As far as the Chargers are concerned, they could end up playing the winner of that game, as the No. 5 seed is still in play. That said, however, they could also end up in either of the other two wild-card slots. So, let's have a look at all the scenarios Los Angeles faces in Week 18.
How the Chargers can clinch the No. 5 seed
For the Chargers to win the No. 5 seed, they need to beat the Broncos and also have the Texans lose to the Colts.
If those two things happen, it wouldn't matter what the Bills do against the Jets because even if Buffalo wins, the Chargers would still own the tiebreaker over the Bills due to having a better record against common opponents. For those wondering, that's why Los Angeles currently owns the No. 6 seed, while Buffalo sits in seventh.
The Bolts will know their fate for the fifth spot before they take the field against the Broncos, as Houston and Indianapolis are part of the early-afternoon slate of games, while LA and Denver are included in the late-afternoon portion of the Week 18 schedule. If the Texans win, the No. 5 seed is no longer an option.
How the Chargers can clinch the No. 6 seed
lf the Chargers beat the Broncos, they're guaranteed at least the No. 6 seed no matter what happens anywhere else.
Another way they claim this spot is if the Texans beat the Colts and the Bills lose to the Jets. If these two things happen, the outcome against Denver doesn't matter.
If the Chargers, Texans, and Bills all win or lose and end up with the same record, whether 12-5 or 11-6, the order that exists now would remain, with Houston at No. 5, Los Angeles at No. 6, and Buffalo at No. 7.
How the Chargers can clinch the No. 7 seed
The No. 7 seed honestly seems like the most likely place for the Chargers, as the combination of a loss to the Broncos and a Bills win over the Jets puts Los Angeles into the final slot.
The Jaguars could throw a big monkey wrench into all of this
Now, the one thing we haven't mentioned is the possibility of the Jaguars losing to the Titans. If the Jags win this game, of course, they automatically clinch the AFC South, which also occurs if the Texans lose to the Colts.
But if the Jags lose and the Texans win, the division goes to Houston, thus dropping Jacksonville into the wild-card race.
If that happens and the Chargers and Bills each win their games, all three teams would be 12-5. In this scenario, there would be no straight head-to-head tiebreaker, all three would have 9-3 conference records, and there is no group of four teams all three teams played against for a common-opponent tiebreaker, which means going to strength of victory. And that wouldn't be determined until the entire Week 18 schedule plays out.
This isn't a very likely scenario, but this hasn't been a typical season. So, just keep this in mind in case things get weird this weekend, as it would be absolute chaos.