A myriad of mistakes, including uncharacteristic misses from the most accurate kicker in football and an egregious penalty from the referees, officially ended the LA Chargers' hopes of winning the AFC West on Saturday.
The Chargers fell 20-16 to the Houston Texans and with it, lost their chance of winning the AFC West. Los Angeles went from the No. 5 seed to the No. 7 seed with a loss, and will be stuck there if the Texans and Buffalo Bills win their final two games.
While playoff seeding is still in play in Week 18, the Chargers have far less to play for in Week 18 against the Denver Broncos. Faced with that reality, Jim Harbaugh absolutely has to make a decision that Brandon Staley bungled three years ago.
Jim Harbaugh would be foolish to not rest the Chargers starters against the Broncos
Playoff seeding is not enough of a reason for the Chargers to play any important starters in Week 18. There's simply not enough on the line to justify risking any sort of injury, giving Harbaugh what should be an easy decision against the Broncos.
Staley was faced with this exact same situation three years ago against the same opponent in the same building. Staley and the Chargers opted to play the starters one half, and in that half, Mike Williams injured his back. Williams missed the Wild Card Round, where the Chargers infamously collapsed against the Jaguars.
The Chargers can't risk history repeating itself, especially with a quarterback who is nursing a broken hand already with a bad offensive line in front of him.
Los Angeles would need to beat a Broncos team that is playing for the No. 1 seed to have a chance of climbing to a higher seed. But that's not enough, the team would also need both the Texans and Bills to lose a game. Buffalo could lose against the Eagles in Week 17, but it's highly unlikely they'll lose to the New York Jets in Week 18. Houston plays the Indianapolis Colts, who have absolutely nothing to play for and might be playing Riley Leonard.
Getting back to the No. 5 seed to play a Pittsburgh Steelers team the Chargers already blew out is unrealistic. The No. 6 seed would be the ceiling, but that would line the Chargers up against either the Jacksonville Jaguars or Texans — two teams that have beaten the Chargers this season.
The No. 7 seed actually isn't that bad of a path for the Chargers. Los Angeles would play the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round, which might actually be the best matchup for the team. New England doesn't have a great pass rush to exploit the Chargers' offensive line and Jesse Minter could have his way with a second-year quarterback.
If the Chargers got past the Patriots, they'd play a Broncos team they are familiar with and have beaten already. Ironically enough, the No. 7 seed might present the best path to making it to the AFC Championship.
But even if it didn't, the risk of playing the starters it's worth it. The argument of rest vs. rust shouldn't even exist. NFL teams have bye weeks all season and it's always viewed as an advantage over their next opponent. Yet when it's teams resting starters in Week 18 it's somehow a bad thing because it makes players rusty? The math isn't mathing.
There's nothing to play for. Give Trey Lance a chance to audition for his next job throwing to Tre' Harris, KeAndre Lambert-Smith and a practice squad receiver. Try out some of the depth offensive linemen. Give Derwin James, Khalil Mack, and other impactful defenders a day off.
The decision is easy for Harbaugh. Hopefully, he doesn't overthink it.