Chargers vs. Raiders – Looking Toward Sunday


Every week I am going to try to bring you the stats for the upcoming match-up.  I will also and try to evaluate those stats in an unbiased fashion. None of this ‘I feel’ or ‘I want’ crap, just true honest numbers that don’t have opinions or lie.

The NumbersBy the numbers the Raiders offense is bad – actually horrible.  They are last in the league in points (12.8 per game), rushing (61.5 yards per game) and total yards.  Their passing however is up to 26th.

Chargers Defense – 1st in points (12.6), 3rd in overall yardage, 2nd against the pass, 9th against the run 

The Raider defense is much better than their offense, but that does not say much.  They are 19th in yards allowed and a respectable 12th in points allowed (25.8 per game).  They also rank 31st against the run (158 per game and a 4.3 average per carry), but they are 4th against the pass. The disparity between the run and the pass defense is a little weird.  I wonder if the pass numbers might be skewed by the horrible run defense.  For most of the teams in the league, if they can run the ball with regular success, they will.  As a result teams may just be choosing to run more than pass, which leads to lower passing yards per game, which makes the Raiders pass defense look good. Or the Raiders may have a decent pass defense.

I wont spend too much time on the Charger numbers.  Defense – 1st in points (12.6), 3rd in overall yardage, 2nd against the pass, 9th against the run. Offense – 8th in points (26.6), 11th in yards, 7th in passing, 27th in rushing.

Quick lookAt first glance this looks like a blowout.  Just looking at points allowed and points scored an obvious conclusion is 26-12 in favor of the Chargers.  Whatifsports agrees with an average simulation of 29-18.

Key to the GameUsually its keys to the game, but I really don’t think you need more than one with this game.  The Chargers are just more talented in every area.  With that said the one key is…

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Do not underestimate your opponent – The Raiders are dangerous right now.  Getting a new coach can spark life into a team that was down in the dumps. Combine that with two weeks to prepare and a desire to not look like the fools of the NFL and you can bet that Oakland will show up to play.  Throw in a rowdy home crowd and you have a dangerous formula brewing.  The Bolts need to show up prepared and ready.  Expect to get punched in the mouth right from the get go (See Jacksonville game).  Don’t lose focus and stick to the game plan.  Score early to quiet the crowd and play through the Raiders initial boost of energy.

PredictionI don’t see the Raiders slowing down the Chargers offense unless they hide the ball in a hole in the ground.  I want to say 31, but I will go with 27 just because we are on the road.  As for the Raiders offense I don’t really see them scoring, but with the home crowd and a charged up team I think they might put some points on the board.  So my conservative logical approach by the numbers says 28-13.

Now if I were to do that thing I said I wouldn’t do and go with my gut feel…. Get ready for another 31-0 shutout.