Justin Herbert is coming off perhaps his best game of the season as the LA Chargers defeated the Pittsburgh Steelers on Sunday Night Football. While there was a scare at the end of the game, Herbert was able to pilot the Chargers to the promised land with a game-winning touchdown to Mike Williams.
Herbert became the first quarterback in NFL history to record at least 90 rushing yards and 350 passing yards in a single game. This is remarkable when you consider all of the great quarterbacks who can also use their legs, such as Lamar Jackson and Russell Wilson.
Herbert has solidified his place in the elite quarterback conversation with the likes of Wilson and Jackson by proving that his rookie season was no fluke. Herbert could join an even more exclusive group after the season as well if he takes home the MVP trophy.
Justin Herbert's MVP odds have fluctuated all season and he now finds himself as one of the favorites after Week 11. Herbert has the seventh-best odds to win the MVP award on WynnBET, coming in at +1000.
While being seventh this late in the season typically means you are out of the running, the MVP award is wide-open this season. There is not a single player that has really taken over as the consensus MVP favorite and moving forward, it is hard not to like Herbert's chances.
Why LA Chargers fans should jump on Justin Herbert's MVP odds
First, let's look at the competition. Tom Brady (+250), Josh Allen (+500), Patrick Mahomes (+700), Matthew Stafford (+750), Dak Prescott (+750) and Aaron Rodgers (+900) are the seven quarterbacks ahead of Herbert as far as the odds are concerned. You can make an easy case against each of the seven.
Tom Brady had two bad games against the Saints and Washington and while he is defying age limitations, it would not be all that surprising if the 44-year-old quarterback got worse as the year went on and the temperature got colder. Patrick Mahomes has turned the ball over a ton and if the Chargers outlast the Chiefs in the AFC West then it is hard to pick Mahomes over Herbert. Matthew Stafford and Josh Allen have both been sliding of late with their teams sliding as well. If that trend continues it only helps Herbert.
Dak Prescott and Aaron Rodgers both missed a game with injury and struggled after that. Herbert has not missed a game and if he plays 17 and the other play 16 (or even 15) then Herbert is absolutely going to have the advantage over those two.
Herbert is already putting up MVP numbers and he is trending in the right direction. Herbert ranks fifth in passing yards (Mahomes ranks first but will fall with a bye week in Week 12), fourth in passing touchdowns and is first in game-winning drives. He is second in quarterback rating and is first in EPA. He is undoubtedly the reason why the Chargers have a winning record and are competing for the AFC West crown.
The Bolts are primed to go on a run to finish the season as well and in that run, Herbert should play great. The Chargers have the Broncos, Bengals, Giants, Chiefs, Texans, Broncos and Raiders remaining on the schedule. The team should, at the very least, go 4-2 in those games but if they go 5-1 or even 6-0 then they will compete for the top seed in the AFC and it will be because of Herbert. That only helps his MVP chances.
Justin Herbert is about to come up against some easy defenses as well that will only improve his numbers. Houston allows the sixth-most passing yards per game, New York seventh, Cincinnati eighth and Kansas City 10th. Four of the remaining seven games are against bottom-10 passing defenses. The other games, against the Broncos (twice) and Raiders, shouldn't be much of a problem, either. Denver has not faced many good quarterbacks and Herbert already torched the Raiders once this season.
There is a chance that the LA Chargers go on a run, win the AFC West and contend for the no. 1 seed in the conference. Justin Herbert's numbers will be incredible if that run happens and will make him the MVP favorite. Now might be the last great time to jump on his MVP odds.