The LA Chargers were thoroughly embarrassed in Week 3 against the Jacksonville Jaguars. It is one thing to lose a game when you are dealing with injuries, it is another thing to come completely unprepared and look completely outmatched in the process.
Now without Rashawn Slater, Jalen Guyton and Joey Bosa (plus more, most likely), the Charges will be on the road against the Houston Texans. Houston gave the Chargers their most embarrassing loss last season and this time around, the Bolts are going to look for a big rebound.
Anything less than a definitive win here for the Chargers is a loss. If the team comes out flat and looks unprepared once again then it is going to be a horrible look on the coaching staff. This team is far too talented to come out flat again, especially against a far inferior Texans team.
Chargers vs Texans odds for Week 4:
Despite the ugly loss, the Chargers are still pretty big road favorites against the Texans. FanDuel Sportsbook has the Chargers listed as a 5.5-point favorite on the road, making them a -235 money line favorite. Houston is a +194 money line underdog.
The over/under for the game has been set at 44.5 points with there being slightly more juice favoring the under. As it stands right now, on FanDuel, 61% of the bets are on the Chargers while 70% of the total money is on the Chargers.
Chargers vs Texans prediction for Week 4:
In theory, this is a Texans team that the Chargers should beat by a touchdown nine times out of 10. However, despite Jacksonville being far better than people realize, the Bolts also should have at least competed in that game and they could not do that.
The optimist in me wants to predict the Chargers to cover the 5.5-point spread but the realist in me wants to give out a winning pick. For that reason, I have to lean towards Houston Texans +5.5 in this game.
That is not to say that I think the Chargers will lose this game, but it is hard to see the Bolts blowing a team out with everything going on. This is a Chargers team that is dealing with the most substantial injuries in the NFL, including one that is very obviously hindering its star quarterback.
Also, consider the fact that the Chargers are one of the worst running teams in the league. LA ranks 32nd in both rushing yards and yards per rushing attempt. Teams that cannot run the ball cannot protect a lead late in the game. That is going to keep the door open for Houston to get a back-door cover, even if they are trailing by 14 points in the fourth quarter.
The bottom five teams in rushing yards per game last season were 9-17 against the spread when they were favored. Statistically speaking, the Chargers are going to have a hard time covering this spread.
With that in mind, I would also go with the over 44.5 points. I do not love the over as much as I love Houston +5.5, but if we think it will be a close game then the over should hit. The Chargers shouldn't be held to 10 points again and should be able to score 27 or so against this defense, probably out of necessity.
A final score of Chargers 27, Texans 23 would both hit the over and result in the Texans covering against the spread.