The Chargers will hitch a ride with Santa to Indianapolis on Christmas, as they prepare for Monday Night Football against the Indianapolis Colts.
Fantasy production didn't meet expectations in last week's 17-14 victory over the Titans. Justin Herbert finished with 10.7 PPR points (QB 25). Keenan Allen (16.6) and Mike Williams (10.7) each placed outside the Top 20 at their position. I believe an overarching explanation for most of this can be chalked up to volatility.
The Bolts scored on both of their red zone trips, and each touchdown was a carry inside the five-yard line from Ekeler/Kelley.
Herbert's lone end zone target was as fluky of a turnover you'll see all season.
Prior to Week 15, he led the entire NFL with 36 end zone passes (PFF). Following the hot-potato interception, his TD/INT ratio sits at 14/1 on these attempts. Herbert and LAC's pass catchers are due for some positive regression in scoring opportunities.
Chargers-Colts fantasy football preview for Week 16:
Monday Night Football
Fantasy owners should be thankful for Lucas Oil Stadium because weather appears to play a big factor elsewhere throughout the weekend. On Wednesday, the Colts announced Nick Foles as their starting QB. Add that to last week's epic meltdown against Minnesota, and this becomes a matchup the Chargers can't afford to let slip away.
Over the last month of the season, the Colts have given up the most fantasy points/game to RBs and WRs (The Edge). During this stretch, both IND and LAC are allowing the league's highest red zone touchdown percentages on defense (rbsdm.com/stats).
Let's breakdown some of the Bolts' individual matchups:
Ekeler dropped 15 points against the Titans, ranking outside the Top 15 backs in Week 15 (see what I did there?).
Now that Keenan Allen and Mike Williams are back at full capacity, that doesn't mean Ekeler's production walks the plank. However, his ungodly usage numbers have simmered.
Through Week 13, Ekeler notched 8+ targets per game and had 3 carries inside the five-yard line. Over the last two games with Allen/Williams, he's seen just 11 targets with 3 inside-five carries, which resulted in a pair of touchdowns (PFF). A big reason why his fantasy output is constant are the goal-line touches. Unless they hold on a weekly basis, Ekeler will continue to come back down to earth.
Over the last month, Indy's given up the most touchdowns (8), and second-most rec YPG (50) to RBs. Let's see how the Bolts implement their swiss-army knife in both phases on offense.
Over 72% of Keenan Allens PPR points have come through the slot this season (The Edge). Dating back to Week 12, the Colts allow 29.5 slot PPG, second-most in the NFL.
Allen has played in five consecutive games since returning from injury in Week 11. Over those weeks, he's fifth among all receivers with 89.9 PPR points (PFF). The vet sees consistent volume when healthy, and hasn't caught a touchdown in two weeks. Plenty of green flags in his direction.
Best of luck this week and Go Chargers!