The LA Chargers are sitting pretty heading into Week 16. Things looked bleak for the Bolts when they lost to the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13 to fall to 6-6 on the season. However, the team has rallied from that loss to beat two playoff teams in back-to-back weeks in the Dolphins and the Titans.
As a result, the Chargers are currently the sixth seed in the AFC and could actually clinch a playoff spot in Week 16. A lot would need to happen to clinch a spot that early but as long as the Chargers win they will be in fantastic shape.
The Bolts are on the road on Monday Night Football the day after Christmas to take on the Indianapolis Colts. Indy is already one of the worst teams in the league and is even worse with Jonathan Taylor most likely not playing in the game. That has definitely had an impact on the betting lines for this one.
Chargers vs Colts Week 16 odds:
The Chargers initially opened as three-point favorites on the road against the Colts but that line has already moved as they are now 3.5-point favorites. This makes the Chargers a -198 moneyline favorite while the Colts are a +166 moneyline underdog.
The point total for the game has moved down since the Jonathan Taylor news as well. The current line stands at 46.5 points, which is one of the lowest lines that the Chargers have had all season.
Chargers vs Colts Week 16 prediction:
Anything can happen in any given NFL game, I get that. Taking an opponent lightly is the first step to losing in disappointing fashion and watching the playoff odds tumble as a result. This exact thing happened to the Chargers last year against the Houston Texans late in the season.
That being said, it would be a disaster if the LA Chargers lose this game. The Colts are one of the worst teams in the league with an analyst as a head coach that is playing for draft position. With no Jonathan Taylor, it is hard to see Indy's offense doing anything of note.
To be fair, the Colts do have some playmakers on defense, particularly on the defensive line. This offense also historically struggles against cover 3, which is Gus Bradley's defense of choice. For that reason, we could see an uglier game from the offense than we expect.
Already moved to 47/46.5 in spots, but still like it. Gus Bradley primarily runs cover 3, Herbert avg a -0.23 EPA/play vs coved 3 this season which sucks. Colts dline > LAC oline, and Buckner/Grover will likely have his way with Zion/Feiler. Colts secondary solid as well
— Arjun Menon (@arjunmenon100) December 19, 2022
I am definitely taking the info that Arjun Menon provides above and taking under 46.5 points. The question then becomes if the Chargers can make it easy on themselves or if they are going to make us sweat out a field goal game.
I have the Chargers winning by nine points (taking Chargers -3.5) with the team being up 16 late and the Colts getting a desperation touchdown towards the end to then attempt the onside kick. The final score will be Chargers 26, Colts 16.