3. Patrick Mahomes UNDER 290.5 passing yards (-115)
Both Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert have their passing yards line set at 290.5 and it seems too high. I would pick the under on both quarterbacks, however with how much the Chargers throw the ball, I am more comfortable in taking Mahomes' under than Herbert.
This number is just too big for the kind of game that this is going to be and how Mahomes typically plays against the Chargers. While the Bolts have seen an improved effort in the run defense, it is still the area of the defense that the Chiefs are going to target in this matchup.
Not only that, but the Chargers should be looking to run the ball slightly more than they typically do because of the situation at tackle and the advantage they have on the inside. This could very well be a game between the tackles for both sides, which would be surprising.
Brandon Staley's defense is built on not getting burnt deep and the Chargers have typically had success against Mahomes in his career. Mahomes averages 236.2 yards per game against the Chargers, which is the second-fewest against any opponent in the NFL. Mahomes averages less against the Green Bay Packers but has only played them once.
Not only does Mahomes average over 50 yards fewer against the Chargers, but he also has not crossed this line much this season. Mahomes has thrown for over 290 yards four times this season and has only done so once in his last seven games.