As written about last week, Chargers at Jaguars last week was one of the biggest playoff swing games of the season. With a win, the Chargers would've risen to a playoff probability of over 90+%. Unfortunately, disaster struck in Jacksonville with a 35-6 loss for the Bolts.
Most simulations prior to the game had the Chargers around a 60% probability to make the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs with a loss to the Jaguars. Per The Athletic's Upshot model, that is indeed what happened. The Chargers' playoff probability dropped to 64% as they sit in the AFC's sixth seed.
The road to the NFL Playoffs for the Chargers just got a bit dicey
On a technical level, everything the Chargers have is right in front of them. A 4-2 finish is almost certain to get them into the playoffs while going 3-3 in their final six games could also still qualify them for the dance. The nature of the Jaguars loss will be more concerning than their overall win-loss record though to some of the fanbase.
Luckily, the Chargers go into the BYE week with a chance to get healthier. As of right now, they're potentially getting RB Omarion Hampton back for the Raiders game in Week 13. A win over Las Vegas in The Athletic's simulator boosts the Chargers' playoff odds to 70%.
After a game against the struggling Raiders, the Chargers' schedule does get tougher. The remaining five games after that are at home vs. Philadelphia, at Kansas City, at Dallas, vs. Houston, and at Denver. ESPN's rankings have the Chargers' final six games as the fifth-hardest opponent strength of schedule in the NFL.
Sunday's loss by no means ended the Chargers' season. But it did make the road going forward harder than it would've otherwise been. Fortunately, the Chargers still hold tiebreakers within the AFC West and maintain a fairly positive 6-2 record in conference.
While it seems like the sky is falling after the disaster in Duval, things could be worse for Los Angeles.