Sunday was a relatively high impact game in the AFC playoff race for the Chargers. After Denver's TNF win over the Raiders, the Chargers needed a good performance against the Steelers to keep pace in the AFC West. Los Angeles also has to monitor the race for the three AFC Wild Card spots and beating Pittsburgh added to their margins in that context as well.
Two playoff models currently have the Chargers sitting pretty as far as the playoffs are concerned. NFL Next Gen Stats has Los Angeles' current playoff probability at 82%. In addition to their win over the Steelers, the team also received some help elsewhere in the conference.
Upset losses by the Jaguars and Bills allowed the Chargers to gain a game on those squads. They moved up to the fifth seed over Buffalo for the time being.
The Chargers are looking good as far as their road to the 2025-26 NFL Playoffs is concerned, but there's still more to be done.
Per The Athletic's Playoff Upshot model, the Chargers actually have the same probability to make the playoffs as in Next Gen Stats at 82%. However, there is a rather big swing game for the model this week.
The Upshot gives the Chargers a 93% chance to make it if they beat the Jaguars in Week 11. If Los Angeles were to lose to Jacksonville, the Upshot model puts them at just a 68% chance to make the playoffs.
The Jaguars are reeling recently as they've had losses and injuries pile up. But they get a home game and the Chargers are traveling west coast to east coast this week. The Chargers are 2-1 as the away team on the east coast this year with wins over Tennessee and Miami. They lost to the Giants in Week 4.
The Chargers are approaching a playoff berth after their win over the Steelers. But the Jaguars represent yet another test against an AFC playoff hopeful that has the chance to set them back. Hopefully, Herbert and the Chargers are able to take care of business this week.