The Los Angeles Chargers have been one of the NFL's most tantalizing teams throughout the offseason. New offensive coordinator Mike McDaniel has generated enough buzz to give L.A. the joint-sixth-best Super Bowl odds in the league, according to ESPN.
But ESPN's own Bill Barnwell isn't buying into the hype. In his playoff predictions, he left the Chargers on the outside looking in, citing potential regression on defense as one of his main reasons for concern.
Barnwell said, "New coordinator Chris O'Leary will be in that role for the first time at any level. [Jesse] Minter was able to coax improved play from veterans Donte Jackson and Khalil Mack while developing youngsters such as Cam Hart, Tarheeb Still and Daiyan Henley into immediate contributors. It wouldn't be a surprise if the defense took a step backward this season."
Chargers are already getting left out of playoff talks
It's hard to understate the impact that Minter had on the Chargers' defense. His units finished in the top ten in EPA allowed per play in both 2024 and 2025 after falling in the bottom half of the league in previous years. He led players like Derwin James, Tuli Tuipulotu, and Tarheeb Still to play to their best.
Now that Minter is the head coach of the Baltimore Ravens, O'Leary is tasked with keeping the defense at a high level. With his limited experience, some regression should be expected.
But will the gains on offense be enough to counteract the losses on defense? McDaniel has produced elite, explosive offenses before, and he has all of the tools to do it again in Los Angeles. While the interior of the offensive line is worrisome, the rest of the offensive roster could be as good as any in the league.
Justin Herbert, Omarion Hampton, and Ladd McConkey could all be in line for breakout campaigns.
Unfortunately, that still might not be enough. Barnwell has both the Denver Broncos and the Kansas City Chiefs making the playoffs this season. In such a tightly contested AFC West, one or two close losses could be the difference between a division title and missing the postseason entirely.
Jim Harbaugh's team will have to hold together the pieces that drove its success last season, while supporting the expected growth of the offense. If the Chargers can't walk that narrow path for 18 weeks, the unsettling possibility of missing the playoffs could become reality.
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