The Los Angeles Chargers have announced they will rest many of their starters in Week 18. In doing so, have forced many fans' attention onto the remaining games that will determine their matchup for the AFC Wild Card Round.
Luckily for Chargers fans, things have already begun to crystallize. Given the current playoff picture and the games on the slate for Week 18, Los Angeles will almost certainly face the New England Patriots in their first playoff game.
Earning the seventh seed is almost never an ideal scenario. However, for the Chargers, it may be their best shot at forcing their way into the second round, and it is becoming a more probable scenario by the day.
The Chargers need only a few things to go right for them to earn their ideal Wild Card opponent
Post bye-week, the season has likely induced a bit of whiplash for Chargers fans. The team went from the fringes of playoff contention to the edge of divisional glory, only to be sidelined again and locked into a Wild Card spot after their tough loss to the Houston Texans in Week 17.
Jim Harbaugh has since said that the team will rest the players who "have the most bruises and need that time the most," in Week 18, specifying that Justin Herbert will be included among this crop considering the hand injury he suffered in Week 14 against the Las Vegas Raiders.
With Trey Lance starting against a Denver Broncos team fighting for a playoff bye, one can safely assume that this will be a loss for Los Angeles. They will likely finish the season with an 11-6 record.
To finish with the seventh seed, the Chargers would then be dependent upon the Buffalo Bills, who will face off against the New York Jets. While the AFC South is still technically up in the air, Los Angeles has lost to both the Houston Texans and the Jacksonville Jaguars, meaning that both of those teams have tie-breakers for seeding purposes.
It gets more complicated if the Bills were to lose, given the fact that Los Angeles holds the tie-breaker based on their record in common games played. If Buffalo wins, however, the Chargers would be locked into the seventh-seed with a loss to the Broncos.
Even with a win, New England would then earn the second seed in the AFC, setting them up for a playoff matchup against a Los Angeles team with a staunch defensive identity.
As frustrating as the Chargers offense has been over the course of this season, a questionable New England run defense and a depleted secondary could open up a window for them to earn their first playoff win since 2019.