Week 18 was supposed to be a high-leverage game with the AFC West crown on the line. Instead, after losing to the Houston Texans on Saturday, the LA Chargers don't have much to play for against the Denver Broncos to end the season.
Resting the starters is a no-brainer for Jim Harbaugh, who shouldn't risk injury like his predecessor did in the very same situation three years ago. There's no real point in jockeying for playoff position with the Bolts locked into a wild-card spot regardless.
In fact, as counterintuitive as it may seem, the best seed for the Chargers in the AFC is the No. 7 seed. It would actually behoove the Chargers to lose in Week 18 to lock up the No. 7 seed as it sets up the best path to the Super Bowl for the Bolts.
Chargers' Super Bowl path becomes clear as the No. 7 seed in the AFC
The Chargers would almost certainly face the New England Patriots in the Wild Card Round if they wind up the No. 7 seed. Losing to the Broncos would keep the Patriots from winning the No. 1 seed, and it's unlikely the Pats lose to the Miami Dolphins to become the No. 3 seed (although it's not impossible).
New England is a great football team and going on the road to beat them in the playoffs is no easy feat. However, there is a real case to be made that this is the most favorable matchup for the Bolts in the first round, even over the eventual AFC North winner.
The Patriots don't have a top-tier pass rush that can expose the Chargers' biggest weakness: the offensive line. Sure, the Pats have a good run defense, but the Chargers don't need to be a run-first team to beat them. Let's not forget Los Angeles has Justin Herbert.
And as great as the Patriots have been this season, they have beat up on the softest schedule in the league. They've still been solid against fellow playoff teams, but it's not like the Pats are the same world-beating team they were a decade ago.
Plus, while he may end up winning the MVP, Drake Maye is still a second-year quarterback who has no playoff experience. Defensive coordinator Jesse Minter could put Maye in a blender with various defensive looks.
If the Chargers were to get past the Patriots, they would be guaranteed a game against the Broncos in the second round. Los Angeles has already beaten Denver this season, and by resting starters in Week 18, can get even more intel on the Broncos without risking much.
It's certainly easier said than done, but if there is any team the Chargers would want to play in the second round it is a divisional opponent they have already beaten this season.
That creates a path for the Chargers to reasonably make the AFC Championship Game, where anything could happen. Los Angeles would undoubtedly have a tough challenger in the AFC Championship Game, but at that point, all the Bolts need to do is win one tough game to make the Super Bowl.
Are the Chargers the runaway favorites to represent the AFC in the Super Bowl? Not at all. But believe it or not, their path as the No. 7 seed is actually be the best path possible.