The Los Angeles Chargers will face off against the ascendant New England Patriots this Sunday in an attempt to earn their first playoff victory since 2018.
Far from a typical two-seed vs. seven-seed matchup, this game has all the drama you might want in the Wild Card Round. Both Drake Maye and Justin Herbert will be going for their first playoff wins, and each team's strengths and vulnerabilities are matched in such a way that the game is virtually a toss-up at this point.
Bill Barnwell at ESPN, however, thinks that some of the Chargers' inconsistencies on defense could prove to be their demise against the dynamic Patriots offense:
"This would be a matchup of the best offense at throwing to either sideline by QBR (New England) against the best defense at stopping those throws (Los Angeles)... I think Maye hits a couple of deep shots to earn his first career playoff victory."Bill Barnwell
The Chargers will live or die with their defense against the Patriots
All season, the Chargers' primary weakness has been the play of their offensive line. They have allowed Herbert to be sacked 60 times, and they have dropped multiple games as a result.
The Patriots, however, have one of the league's least imposing pass rushes. Los Angeles's challenge will therefore lie in stifling their opponent's offense.
New England is leads the NFL this season with 7.7 net yards per passing attempt. They have scored the fifth-most passing touchdowns and the fourth-most rushing touchdowns. By all measures, Maye is one of the most imposing quarterbacks that the Chargers could face.
As Barnwell notes, Maye led the league in QBR on deep shots. His prediction that a couple of explosive plays could put the game out of reach for Los Angeles makes sense in that context.
While Barnwell also notes the Chargers were 16th in expected points added per play against the deep ball, that statistic is somewhat misleading. Prior to their game against the Houston Texans, in which they gave up two deep shots by C.J. Stroud in the first quarter, they had allowed just two touchdowns of 30 or more air yards all season.
With Donte Jackson and R.J. Mickens back, one can assume that the Texans game will prove to be merely an anomaly.
If the Chargers were to lose because their offensive line was severly outplayed, almost no one would bat an eye. The season has seemed to be heading that way since Joe Alt went down.
However, if they lose because their secondary is unable to prevent explosive plays, that would truly be a surprise.