Not many fans expected the LA Chargers and New England Patriots to get the Sunday night slot during NFL Wild Card Weekend. That decision to pit those teams against each other at that time very well may have a big impact on the final outcome due to one key factor: weather.
New England is used to playing in its fair share of bad weather as an outdoor team while the Chargers aren't used to bracing the elements at SoFi Stadium. However, despite this, it's the warm-weather Chargers who have an advantage on Sunday night.
It's going to be a chilly night in Foxborough with a high of 35 degrees Fahrenheit and real-feel temperatures in the 20s during the game. It's won't just be chilly, though, there also could be snow. According to forecasts, there's a 20% chance of snow throughout the entire game.
Cold weather is an advantage to the Chargers, not the Patriots
Conventional wisdom tells us that the cold-weather Patriots benefit more from the weather, especially off the heels of a monster rushing attack in Week 18 with a good run defense in the team's back pocket.
But perception isn't always reality, and the numbers bear out in the Chargers' favor.
It's the Chargers, not the Patriots, who have the better defensive EPA/Play against the run this season. In fact, the Chargers have the third-best EPA/play against the run in the entire league; the Patriots are much more modest at No. 16.
Offensively, the two teams are similar. The Chargers rank 13th in EPA/play while running the ball while the Patriots rank 20th, although the different isn't much. There is a big difference between the team's EPA/play while throwing the ball, though. Despite Justin Herbert being an elite quarterback, the Patriots are far ahead of the Bolts; New England ranks first, the Chargers rank 26th.
Throwing the ball is going to be much tougher in these conditions, especially with a defensive coordinator who will make a second-year quarterback's night a nightmare in Jesse Minter. With a banged-up offensive line that struggles to pass block, the Chargers want to get into a run-heavy game regardless who they have under center.
Plus, Herbert is one of the few quarterbacks who can use his legs as good, if not better, than Maye. What is usually a clear advantage for the Patriots at the quarterback position is a moot point against Herbert and the Chargers.
New England also has a much bigger fumbling problem than the Chargers. Rhamondre Stevenson is infamous for his past fumbles and as a team, the Patriots fumbled the ball 20 times this season, which ranked sixth in the NFL.
The biggest x-factor for the Chargers is Omarion Hampton's health. Hampton didn't practice on on Wednesday or Thursday, leaving fans skeptical about his status. Kimani Vidal is healthy and has stepped up for Hampton in the past, setting the stage for a potential Darren Sproles-like performance if he has to go as the RB1.
This game was already going to be a hard-hitting affair that lived in the trenches. The weather dictates that it will be even sloppier than fans initially thought. And while the reputations may say otherwise, it's actually the Chargers who benefit from this dynamic.
It's bound to be an extremely tight game either way, but the Chargers have to like their chances.