NFL Playoff Shifts Week 2: AccuScore
By Jonathan Lee
AccuScore offers a professional-grade expert betting system that highlights weekly NFL Picks with the best chance of success. AccuScore uses historical performances to calculate the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. Visit AccuScore for weekly updates for all football and sports predictions.
The Luke McCown experiment has already imploded in Jacksonville. The Jaguars got six completions and four interceptions from their quarterback in a 29 point home blowout. As a result, they dropped nearly 18 percentage points in playoff probability to just 8.8 percent (which is probably still too high). The team in firm control of the AFC South is Houston, the only 2-0 team in the division. The Texans gained 21 percentage points not only because of another solid win but also because AccuScore now projects Peyton Manning to miss the entirety of the season. Last week, computer simulations still had Manning playing the final weeks of the season. The Colts are making the playoffs in just 2.9 percent of simulations, the lowest number in the AFC. The biggest competition for Houston appears to be Tennessee which is now 30.2 percent likely for a playoff spot after a big win over Baltimore.
The hottest division in football is the AFC East, the only division with three 2-0 teams. The Jets dismantling of the Jags led to a gain of 18.8 percentage points in playoff probability. They still trail the Patriots, however, who actually lost ground after Week 2. There isn’t much ground to gain since New Englands is projected as the most likely team to reach the postseason at nearly 92 percent. The biggest surprise is 2-0 Buffalo who is now 33.2 percent likely for a playoff spot, nearly twice as high as last week. The Dolphins are the one complete dud in the group with only a 0.4 percent chance to win the division.
The Raiders’ loss to Buffalo was probably the best finish of Week 2, but the loss significantly damaged Oakland’s playoff chances. The game was a very winnable non-division contest that the Raiders led late. Oakland lost 14.4 percentage points this week and is now 14.2 percent likely to win the West. The Chargers are still the best team in the division in simulations despite a loss to New England. San Diego is the second likeliest team to win a playoff spot at 85.8 percent. Denver came back to get its first win, but the Broncos are still longshots at just 1.8 percent to win the division. Kansas City, meanwhile, is tied with Indianapolis as the worst team in the conference.
All four teams in the AFC North are 1-1 after 2 weeks. Pittsburgh regained 7.4 percentage points after a rough Week 1 and now leads. The Steelers are 57.1 percent likely to win the division followed by Baltimore at 39.5 percent. The Ravens lost 15.8 percentage points in playoff probability after a surprising loss to Tennessee. The Browns got a win but only gained 3.2 percentage points because of the strength of the two teams ahead of them. Cincinnati is in the same position despite showing more moxie than previously predicted.