On Monday night, Atlanta got one of the most impressive wins of the week by beating the Eagles at home. As a result, the Falcons made the biggest jump, gaining 18 percentage points in probability. They are now in a very crowded group hovering near 50-50 for a playoff spot. The Saints are projected significantly higher at 82.7 percent. Tampa Bay pulled off an exciting road win against the Vikings but gained just 2.3 percentage points due to Atlanta and New Orleans winning. Cam Newton has electrified Carolina’s passing game, but that hasn’t yet translated into victories. The Panthers are still clearly the fourth best team in the division and are the least likely team to make the playoffs in the NFC.
Washington is the only 2-0 team in the NFC East, but the Redskins saw no change in their playoff probability after a one point win over Arizona. The Redskins were already favored over the Cardinals, and they are more likely competing for a Wild Card spot rather than a division title. Philadelphia is still the favorite despite losing 6.3 percentage points this week. Dallas is actually close behind the Eagles, making the playoffs in 48.3 percent of simulations. The Cowboys, though, are already dealing with injuries to Austin Miles and Felix Jones as well as Tony Romo. New York got a solid win over the Rams but is still trailing several teams in the race for a playoff spot. The Giants are the ninth most likely team to make the postseason at 32.8 percent.
You know it’s a different NFL season when the Lions are more likely to make the playoffs than not. Detroit is 2-0, has a 52.2 percent chance of making the playoffs, and has scored the most points in the league. Green Bay is the third highest scoring team through two weeks and is the most likely team to win a playoff spot at 92.8 percent. Chicago was the biggest loser this week after showing even more problems on the offensive line and getting lit up by New Orleans on the road. The Bears dropped a whopping 26.8 percentage points and have just a 5.9 percent chance at winning the North. Minnesota has not looked great through two weeks, and the Vikings have just a 1 in 11 chance at the postseason.
San Francisco lost to the Dallas Cowboys in overtime and blew a golden chance to really take control of the NFC West. Still, the Niners are more likely to make the playoffs than not at 50.5 percent. Arizona is next in line at 34.5 percent, virtually no change from a week ago. The Rams were a trendy pick by many people to win the West, but a very difficult early schedule could put them in too big of a hole to come back from. Seattle is also a real longshot at just 7.4 percent.