NFL PLAYOFF SHIFTS WEEK 5

By Jonathan Lee

AccuScore Analyst

AccuScore provides expert NFL picks and projections by calculating the precise probability teams have of winning each game, their division, and making the playoffs. Using projected lineups, football predictions are created by simulating each game of the season one play at a time, up to 10,000 to 20,000 times. VisitAccuScore for expert sports picks.

AFC

The Bills continue to circle the wagons. Buffalo beat the so-called “dream team” to continue its own dream season moving to 4-1. The Bills gained over 10 percentage points in the AccuScore projections and now, make the playoffs more often than not: 53.2 percent of the time. They remain tied with New England in the real standings. However, the Patriots are the most likely playoff team in the AFC at 94.1 percent. The AFC East team that should start to worry is New York. The Jets had another significant drop in our projections, losing 7.3 percentage points this week. Miami, though, is in good shape for the Andrew Luck sweepstakes.

Oakland won one for Al Davis and continues to be a viable contender in the AFC West. The Raiders win the division in 25.9 percent of simulations. The Chargers remain the favorite in the division. At 83.6 percent, the Chargers are a likely playoff team. Kansas City actually won its second game this week, but the computers don’t believe in the Chiefs, as their playoff odds remain at just three percent. The wins are really just worsening their draft positioning. Denver got a crowd boost by playing Tim Tebow, but the playoffs are a fantasy for this season.

The AFC North is the only division with three teams with three wins, and four teams with two wins. Pittsburgh gained a bit of ground on Baltimore by getting a big win over Tennessee. The Ravens, however, were off on their bye week. Still, the Steelers are the second choice in the North by a slim margin, winning the division 46 percent of the time. The Ravens win the division 49.5 percent of the time. The Bengals surprisingly have three wins, but they are long shots at the postseason at 15.4 percent. At the bottom, Cleveland is just 5.2 percent likely to make the playoffs.

Houston fell 5.7 percentage points after an odd loss to the Raiders at home. Luckily for the Texans, the AFC South is a weak division and they remain the favorites. They win the division 66.4 percent of the time. Tennessee is about half as likely for the playoffs winning the division 30.6 percent of the time. Jacksonville and Indianapolis are already just playing out the string at a combined 1-9, with just a 3.1 percent combined probability for the playoffs. Peyton Manning for MVP?