Heading into NFL free agency, there was a lot of speculation around how much money Zion Johnson would sign for. Chargers fans got their answer on Monday as the 2022 first-round pick reportedly agreed to a three-year, $49.5 million contract with the Cleveland Browns, per Adam Schefter.
The concerns about Johnson making $20 million per season were ultimately unfounded with his AAV falling at a more modest, but still respectable, $16.5 million. The deal reportedly includes $32.4 million guaranteed, which given the structure of the contract and the AAV, likely means the Browns can get out of the contract with little dead cap in 2028.
It's a sizeable contract for Johnson, but not as large as Chargers fans feared it would be. It's certainly a number the Chargers could have matched, which makes his departure all the more interesting. With the Chargers letting him walk at that price, it's safe to say maybe the team didn't value Johnson as much as previously conceived.
The Chargers would have re-signed Zion Johnson at the Browns' price if they were high on him
General manager Joe Hortiz isn't one to operate at the top of the free-agent market but given the other deals that were reportedly agreed to on Monday, Johnson comes in below that top tier. Many assumed the Chargers would re-sign Johnson if this was the price.
The actual interworkings of the contract will make it more obvious the Chargers could have made it happen, too. The cap hit in year one is almost always lower than the AAV, and will probably come in at the $10-12 million number. That year two cap hit will be larger, but with only $32.5 million guaranteed, there's no long-term risk after year two.
That's exactly the kind of contract Hortiz likes to sign. Johnson also wouldn't have counted toward the compensatory formula as an internal free agent, which is another aspect the Chargers' GM values. All the stars were aligned for the Chargers to make this happen except one: Johnson himself.
Hortiz and Harbaugh spoke highly of Johnson when they got the chance after the season following what was the best year of his career. It wasn't perfect, but given all the dysfunction around him, Johnson's improvements were a promising sign.
Because of that, many assumed the team valued him in free agency. That clearly wasn't the case. Instead of taking the known option of Johnson, the Chargers are deciding to use their resources to explore what's behind door No. 2.
And quite frankly, we all probably should have seen this coming after the team declined his fifth-year option last offseason.