The Los Angeles Chargers have been horrendous since the start of this season. I don't need to re-hash the stats here at length for you to know that.
Since I can't resist the temptation, though, we'll do it quickly. The Chargers are 32nd in EPA/play through six weeks. Justin Herbert has thrown eight interceptions to just five touchdowns, and Los Angeles has scored more than 20 points just once to this point in the season. They managed to put up just six points and 259 total yards in their final pre-bye matchup against the Kansas City Chiefs.
But with a bye week comes rest. And with rest—and hopefully a serious reset of expectations and process within the organization—comes hope.
The Chargers may not be able to eke out a win this week against the Los Angeles Rams—even with their opponents' recent shortcomings, the talent gap may still be too significant. But the schedule gets significantly easier from there, and that, at the very least, is an encouraging sign.
Los Angeles should still have a top draft pick when it's all said and done. But it still feels likely they'll pick up a couple victories down the stretch of this campaign. The question simply remains—when will the first one come?
The Los Angeles Chargers have some winnable games on the slate—if the offense can even work its way into mediocrity
When a victory does eventually come for the Chargers, it's almost certainly going to come on the shoulders of their defense. Chris O'Leary has done an excellent job carrying over at least a portion of the dominance Jesse Minter found on that side of the ball during his two seasons in Los Angeles, and he's routinely been able to limit opposing offenses—especially through the air—even while missing two key pieces in Derwin James Jr. and Donte Jackson. The run defense took a step back against Kansas City, but if the unit can find its footing again in Week 8, there's a real chance they're able to drag a competitive team down into a low-scoring game and escape with a victory.
It's also going to take at least a middling performance from the offense, though. And that's the onus that's upon Mike McDaniel as Los Angeles enters the bye.
I'm going to assume it doesn't come against the Rams. Although Los Angeles has fallen short so far of the Super Bowl expectations that were set for them preseason, that team had a major bounce-back game against the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 7. Even with Davante Adams out, that unit is simply too potent to remain subdued for the entire campaign.
The Houston Texans, though, present a more intriguing matchup in Week 9. They've rebounded significantly from their 0-4 start to the season, and the defense has played well against some of the league's skimpiest offenses. But they still have allowed the fourth-most passing yards in the NFL to this point in the season, and if the offensive line is actually clicking when the Chargers get back into action, there will be a chance for them to pull off a win there.
The Baltimore Ravens are also intriguing. They've lost some significant momentum as Lamar Jackson has been out with an ankle injury, and the defense has simply been middling under Jesse Minter—allowing 35 points in the second half of their Week 7 matchup against the Cincinnati Bengals. If Jackson is back and playing at top capacity (which should also unlock Derrick Henry) again, though, this game will likely be out of reach for Los Angeles.
Assuming the first victory doesn't come in Weeks 8-10, then, it should come shortly after that. The Chargers will play the New York Jets in Week 11—but that's a tougher matchup than it may look on paper, especially if Los Angeles can't gain any momentum in those previously enumerated matchups. New York has a middle-of-the-pack offense this year and one of the league's top passing defenses to this point in the season. The New England Patriots, of course, will represent a tough matchup, and Drake Maye seems to have found his footing since the early-season skid that had fans questioning the legitimacy of his MVP case last season.
So, let's circle the pair of road matchups in Weeks 13 and 14 against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Las Vegas Raiders as the definitive stopping point. Tampa Bay has had one of the only offenses in the league as inefficient as the Chargers' to this point in the season, and their passing defense has merely been middle-of-the-pack. Las Vegas, meanwhile, will likely be starting Fernando Mendoza by that time—which gives the Chargers defense a chance to feast on an quarterback making one of his first NFL starts.
Unless there's rapid improvement, we're looking at two or three wins on the schedule here for Los Angeles in total. But even so, the first one has to come eventually.
Final Prediction: Week 9 vs. Texans — or, if not, Week 11 vs. New York Jets
Let's hope this isn't still a topic of conversation by the time we reach the Week 13/14 pairing.
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