Good teams in the NFL win, great teams in the NFL win and cover. While covering against the spread has absolutely no impact on the NFL standings themselves it can be a good indication of just how good a team really is.
Just look at the Detroit Lions as the perfect example. The Lions became America's Team in 2022 as they were great against the spread. And what do you know, the Lions have come into the 2023 season looking like a true Super Bowl contender.
So who has been the best of the best not just on the field, but in Vegas as well? Let's dive into the against-the-spread records thus far for the 2023 season (ranked by winning percentage).
NFL standings based on ATS record:
AFC East | AFC North | AFC South | AFC West |
|---|---|---|---|
Dolphins (4-1) | Steelers (3-2) | Colts (3-2) | Chiefs (4-2) |
Jets (3-2) | Ravens (3-2) | Titans (3-2) | Chargers (2-2) |
Bills (3-2) | Browns (2-2) | Texans (3-2) | Raiders (2-3) |
Patriots (1-4) | Bengals (1-3-1) | Jaguars (3-2) | Broncos (0-5-1) |
NFC East | NFC North | NFC South | NFC West |
|---|---|---|---|
Eagles (3-1-1) | Lions (4-1) | Buccaneers (3-1) | 49ers (4-1) |
Cowboys (3-2) | Packers (3-2) | Saints (1-3-1) | Seahawks (3-1) |
Commanders (2-3) | Vikings (1-3-1) | Falcons (1-4) | Rams (3-1-1) |
Giants (0-5) | Bears (1-3-1) | Panthers (0-4-1) | Cardinals (3-2) |
As you can see, a lot of the teams are in a similar position as their actual record thus far this year. Teams like the Lions have been winning games and covering spreads, while teams like the Giants are losing both on the field and in Vegas.
The Chargers have exactly the same record against the spread. All four of the Chargers' games have had a close spread so far this season and in each of those games, the outcome matched the outcome against the spread.
Week 6 presents an interesting matchup not just for the Chargers but for several teams in the NFL. The Chargers host the Dallas Cowboys, who have also been fairly consistent against the spread. It is hard to pinpoint an edge in that game with both teams essentially being 50/50.
The biggest disparity in Week 6 is between the Miami Dolphins and Carolina Panthers, which is no surprise. The Dolphins are 4-1 ATS this year while Carolina is winless (although they have a push unlike in real life). That is a big reason why the Dolphins are two-touchdown favorites.