NFL Power Rankings - On the cusp of a playoff run tier:
18. New England Patriots
If the Patriots had a different offensive coordinator than Matt Patricia in 2022, they likely would've been in the AFC Playoff field with how good they were on the defensive side of the ball. Bill O'Brien will be a franchise-defining x-factor at offensive coordinator going forward. His job is solving the Pats' offensive woes, but almost more importantly he'll be tasked with getting Mac Jones to another level.
17. Cleveland Browns
It felt like the Browns were out of a playoff spot fairly early on in the season with both the Jacoby Brissett-Deshaun Watson situation that loomed over their season and a magnitude of injuries compared to previous seasons. Watson did not have the best return after his suspension, throwing for seven touchdowns, five interceptions, 58% completion and 1102 yards. If he is integrated better into the Cleveland offense and returns to form, the Browns will be a threat.
16. Pittsburgh Steelers
Kenny Pickett rebounded in his back half of the season with the Steelers after a pretty disastrous early start to his career. Pittsburgh finished 7-2 in their final nine games to preserve Mike Tomlin's clean sheet on losing seasons. He'll need to take it to another level while the Steelers keep offensive coordinator Matt Canada for a playoff push to happen.
15. Green Bay Packers
The big question is of course the man of mystery every offseason now in Aaron Rodgers. Green Bay will either be running it back with him or transitioning to the Jordan Love era. Their roster is largely set in place with their cap situation but the quarterback situation produces a high variance of outcomes.
14. New York Giants
The Giants were a nice 2022 story with Brian Daboll winning NFL Coach of the Year, but they were pretty clearly an overmatched team who overachieved with the roster they had. In addition to having to keep the Daniel Jones and Saquon Barkley nucleus intact, they'll have to make a lot of improvements defensively if they wish to return to the playoffs in 2023.
13. Detroit Lions
Detroit will have two top 20 draft selections this year to continue building their roster, reaping the benefits from the Matthew Stafford trade. Unless they really want to move on from Jared Goff and get a quarterback of the future, I'd expect them to attack the defense early in the draft.