Justin Herbert's longshot MVP odds show little faith in the LA Chargers QB

The LA Chargers (and the rest of the NFL) are about to kick off the 2024 season and with that, various sportsbooks have released their initial betting odds for the 2024 NFL MVP award ahead of the season opener on Thursday. The top favorite, according to DraftKings, doesn't exactly come as a surprise after last season's playoff run: Patrick Mahomes leads the pack at +475.

Beneath him are some names probably expected to be there based on their teams' chances at high regular season and playoff success. C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen are all lower than +1000 odds at +800, +950, and +900 respectively.

Chargers' star quarterback Justin Herbert is clearly seen as a longshot. He is tied for the 11th-best odds to win MVP at +3500. For reference, Anthony Richardson and Kirk Cousins have the same +3500 odds.

Oddsmakers don't seem to believe in Chargers' QB Justin Herbert this season

It appears to be an uphill battle for the Chargers' QB to make a case for the award. Despite the team bringing in head coach Jim Harbaugh, oddsmakers don't seem to be buying high on the Chargers' winning or Herbert's offensive production this season.

On a level, it makes sense. Truthfully, we have yet to see what this offense will look like with a new coaching staff. Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, Austin Ekeler, and Gerald Everett all departed this offseason to new teams. There are certainly less familiar commodities by name brand on the Chargers' offense now.

DraftKings also has the Chargers with an over/under of 8.5 wins. Going slightly over or slightly under on that figure will not get Herbert the MVP votes he needs. Simply put, the team needs to win and win big for Herbert to get consideration. They'd probably need to knock off the Chiefs in the division for No. 10 to even have a chance.

As demonstrated by last season's MVP odds race that shifted hands a few times between names like Lamar Jackson, Brock Purdy, and Jalen Hurts, team wins are an important factor. All three led the in-season odds at one point before the award went to Jackson following the Ravens' clinching of the one seed (and a head-to-head win over Purdy).

Another question for Herbert's candidacy is whether this offense will allow him to put up the numbers he needs to in order to win MVP. With the Chargers looking to employ Greg Roman's run game concepts, the ball could be taken out of his hands more than the average voter likes.

Whoever steps up as Herbert's top offensive target between names like Josh Palmer, Ladd McConkey, and Quentin Johnston could also prove to be important.

Herbert and the Chargers will open the season against the Raiders this weekend as LA looks to make a statement. A high-caliber offensive performance from Herbert to open the season would certainly catch the attention of the media and MVP voters.