The Los Angeles Chargers are the No. 5 seed in the AFC and are set for a Wild Card Weekend matchup with the Jacksonville Jaguars on Saturday.
The Jaguars will have an extra day of rest and are at home for this game, but the Chargers come in as favorites. The line has moved from Los Angeles -2.5 to -1.5 since open, and a reason may be the injury suffered by Mike Williams in Week 18.
Brandon Staley played his starters in a meaningless game against the Denver Broncos, and the Chargers paid the price when Williams was carted off.
Brandon Staley: "There's only 48 guys that you can choose from and these aren't easy decisions. Hindsight is perfect for everybody on the outside, but these games are not easy to manage. They're not, because you don't have that many players. We did it to the best of our ability."
— Nick Cothrel (@NickCothrel) January 9, 2023
Jacksonville has about as much momentum as it could after clinching the AFC South on Saturday, and it’s undefeated against the spread as a home underdog this season.
Can the Chargers pull off a road win and advance for a potential matchup with the Kansas City Chiefs in the divisional round?
Here are the latest odds and a pick for this matchup:
Chargers vs. Jaguars odds, spread and total
Chargers vs. Jaguars betting trends
- The Chargers are 11-5-1 against the spread.
- The Jaguars are 4-0 against the spread as home underdogs.
- The Jaguars are 8-9 against the spread.
- The OVER is 6-10-1 in the Chargers’ games this season.
- The OVER is 8-9 in the Jaguars’ games this season.
Chargers vs. Jaguars prediction and pick
The Chargers have been one of the best teams against the spread this season, but these teams are both better UNDER teams than OVER teams this season as well.
Los Angeles’ offense has not been as great as many would have thought this season, ranking 20th in yards per play, but they average 23.0 points per game.
The Jags average 23.8 points per game, so a combined score puts us just around 47 points between these two teams.
I think the UNDER is the play here, as the Jags may go to a run-heavy attack since Los Angeles has allowed a league worst 5.4 yards per carry this season.
This is the first playoff game for both Trevor Lawrence and Justin Herbert, so I wouldn’t be shocked to see some early jitters as well. I’ll roll with the UNDER in Jacksonville on Wild Card Weekend.
Find Peter Dewey’s full betting record here.
Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change.