There are a lot of storylines surrounding the LA Chargers this offseason. Right now, the biggest emphasis is on getting Justin Herbert an offensive coordinator that can best utilize the talent that Herbert (and the rest of the offense) has.
After that is sorted, the next order of business on the agenda is going to be extending Justin Herbert. Players from the 2020 draft class become extension-eligible this offseason and the Chargers would be smart to get a deal done sooner rather than later.
There is no doubt that Herbert is going to get a massive contract with the current status of the quarterback market. The exact price is unclear but thanks to ESPN's Jeremy Fowler (subscription required), Chargers fans have a good idea of what it is going to cost.
Several league executives predict that Herbert and Cincinnati Bengals quarterback Joe Burrow are going to surpass the $50.3 million AAV that Aaron Rodgers reset the market with on his short-term deal.
Expectation around the league is for Justin Herbert’s (and Joe Burrow’s) contract extension(s) to surpass the $50.3 million AAV currently held by Aaron Rodgers as QB1 on the market, per ESPN’s Jeremy Fowler.
— Guilty As Charged Podcast (@GACPodcast17) January 24, 2023
Justin Herbert will surpass a $500 million contract with the Chargers if this is true.
If Justin Herbert truly does pass Aaron Rodgers' AAV record then he will undoubtedly get a half-a-billion-dollar contract from the Bolts. Los Angeles is not going to sign him to a short-term contract when he is only 24 years old and is already setting NFL records.
With this knowledge in mind, the baseline prediction for a Herbert extension has to be 10 years, $510 million ($51 million AAV). That is just the floor (based on the AAV prediction), the Chargers could go much higher than this.
The ceiling for Herbert's AAV is probably around $53 million or so but the Chargers could go longer than 10 years if they see fit. Again, Herbert's age works in his favor and could get him a larger overall contract since Burrow is a year and a half older.
With that in mind, I wouldn't rule out a 12-year, $636 million ($53 million AAV) contract for Herbert as the ceiling of what he will get. It would be the largest contract in American Sports history by far. Now that the Chargers are based in Los Angeles they can certainly afford to dole out a contract like this. In San Diego, this might not have been possible.
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Thus, the price tag for a Justin Herbert extension seems to be between a 10-year, $510 million contract and a 12-year, $636 million contract. Regardless of what it is, every Chargers fan just wants to ensure that Herbert stays in LA his entire career.