4. The Chiefs' strength of schedule makes them struggle (with two losses to the Chargers)
A dream season for the LA Chargers includes winning the AFC West and while it would feel nice in the end to win a closely-contested division, it would feel even better if the Chargers all but had the division wrapped up as early as Week 16.
The AFC West is loaded in talent and if the Chargers are going to comfortably win the division they need the Kansas City Chiefs to struggle. The Raiders will probably finish below .500 and while the Broncos are talented, it feels like 11 wins is their ceiling.
Luckily for the Chargers, the Chiefs have the toughest schedule in the entire league. If we go by Warren Sharp's strength of schedule (which is much better than using last year's winning percentage as it uses 2022 win total predictions), the Chiefs' schedule is much harder than any other schedule in the league. The gap between the Chiefs and the next toughest schedule is larger than any other gap between two teams.
The Chiefs are a good football team and can win tough games but it would obviously be more ideal for the Chargers if the Chiefs not only lost their tough games but also lost both games to the Chargers.
If the Chiefs' replacements for what they lost this offseason do not live up to expectations (which is certainly possible) then there is a world in which the Chiefs struggle to win 10 games. That is how hard their schedule is in 2022.
It 95% won't happen but an absolute dream scenario would not only include the Chargers winning the AFC West comfortably but would also include the Chiefs missing the playoffs altogether. There is a world in which only three teams the Chiefs play next season have a losing record, so losing that many games certainly is possible.