The NFL playoff picture is starting to take shape with the NFL standings becoming more concrete late in the season. While there is room for some changes, most of the teams in playoff positions are almost locked in stone after the LA Chargers beat the Denver Broncos on Thursday.
Fourteen teams will make the dance and only one will emerge as Super Bowl Champions. While technically any team in the playoffs can win it all, it is much more realistic for some than others.
Based on how each team has looked this regular season, let's rank the teams currently in playoff position based on their odds of winning the Super Bowl in February.
NFL Standings:
AFC | NFC |
|---|---|
1. Kansas City Chiefs (14-1) | 1. Detroit Lions (13-2) |
2. Buffalo Bills (12-3) | 2. Philadelphia Eagles (12-3) |
3. Pittsburgh Steelers (10-5) | 3. LA Rams (9-6) |
4. Houston Texans (9-6) | 4. Atlanta Falcons (8-7) |
5. Baltimore Ravens (10-5) | 5. Minnesota Vikings (13-2) |
6. LA Chargers (9-6) | 6. Green Bay Packers (10-4) |
7. Denver Broncos (9-6) | 7. Washington Commanders (10-5) |
14. Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons regained control of the NFC South in Week 16 with a big win over the New York Giants and a fortunate Dallas Cowboys win over the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. This may not hold, but as it stands right now the Falcons are the fourth seed in the NFC.
And they are by far the worst team currently in the playoff picture. The Bucs have a much better chance of making noise in the playoffs but they may not even make it to begin with. Michael Penix is not winning a playoff game this year. Sorry.
13. Denver Broncos
The Denver Broncos might not even make the NFL Playoffs if things depending on what happens in the final two weeks. Denver needs to win just one game but has two challenging opponents to end the season.
Denver plays the Cincinnati Bengals in a game that will have massive playoff implications. Then Denver plays the Kansas City Chiefs in Week 18. If Kansas City loses in Week 17 then the Chiefs will play thier starters, which is bad news for the Broncos.
Either way, the Broncos have beaten up on bad teams and have lost to winning teams this season. As much as they have overperformed this season, there is no chance whatsoever Bo Nix leads a Super Bowl run in his rookie season.
12. Washington Commanders
It may feel unfair to rank the Washington Commanders this low considering they are a feel-good story with rookie Jayden Daniels excelling. As good of a story as the Commanders are, though, they are flawed.
Washington has had the easiest strength of schedule this season of any team in the playoff picture (.409). And even then, it took a Hail Mary to beat the Chicago Bears, a concussion to Jalen Hurts to beat the Philadelphia Eagles, and a failed two-point conversion to beat the New Orleans Saints.
The Commanders are in a promising position that can absolutely upset a team in the first round of the playoffs. Winning three road games in a row with a rookie QB after only beating one team with a winning record in the regular season is a lot to ask.
11. LA Chargers
The LA Chargers actually have a decent chance of winning in the first round of the NFL Playoffs depending on the matchup. In fact, the Chargers are the team no division winner wants to play in the first round and the Bolts could upset teams ranked higher than them on this list.
That being said, the odds of winning four playoff games in a row, all on the road, is small for this Chargers team. Jim Harbaugh has done an excellent job of accelerating this rebuild but it is important for fans to reminder what this team is.
Winning one playoff game would be huge for the Chargers. They may not be true Super Bowl contenders in 2024, but they will be in the future.
10. Pittsburgh Steelers
The Pittsburgh Steelers can go on a run if Russell Wilson plays smart football and T.J. Watt absolutely wrecks the game. Essentially, the Steelers are trying to be the Legion of Boom circa 2024, with a worse version of Wilson under center.
While that seems reasonable on paper, the Steelers have been exposed a tad the last two weeks. With the Chiefs and a hungry Bengals team on the schedule, the Steelers very well could be on a four-game losing streak as the sixth seed once the playoffs begin.
9. Houston Texans
Even in a season with a comfortable AFC South win, the Houston Texans have been disappointing. Houston was viewed as a Super Bowl dark horse before the season and with the playoffs now around the corner, it is hard to see this team making a run.
CJ Stroud is without two of his top three receivers and Joe Mixon is starting to slow down as the calendar creeps toward 2025. DeMeco Ryans' defense is stout, but it is hard to see Houston beating two of the top three AFC teams to make the Super Bowl.
8. Minnesota Vikings
This may seem unfair to the Minnesota Vikings, especially considering the team has beaten some strong opponents this season. However, it is hard to imagine a Sam Darnold-led team winning three consecutive road games against good teams to make the Super Bowl, let alone win it.
If the Vikings didn't play in the NFC North and were able to lock up the second seed then it would be a different story with home-field advantage. But without that advantage, the Vikings' chances seem slim.
7. Green Bay Packers
Yes, the Vikings have a better record than the Packers and beat them head-to-head this season. Yes, everything goes on paper completely goes against the idea of ranking the Packers ahead of thier NFC North foes considering both teams will have to play on the road.
However, at the end of the day, the Packers have a better quarterback in Jordan Love and that is the tiebreaker. As great as Darnold has been this season, all 32 NFL franchises would choose Love over Darnold every single time.
6. LA Rams
What!? The LA Rams ranking ahead of both the Vikings and Packers despite having a worse record? What kind of West Coast bias is this?
There are two important factors to keep in mind with the Rams. First, they get to host a playoff game in the Wild Card Round, which certainly makes a difference. Second, they have a Super Bowl-winning head coach and quarterback who knows what it takes to go on a run.
The Rams beat the Vikings, beat the 49ers twice, and just narrowly lost to the Packers and Detroit Lions. They are in the same tier as the Vikings and Packers, but get a slight edge because of experience and one round of home-field advantage.
5. Baltimore Ravens
We have officially entered the "true contenders" tier. Every team from here on out could win the Super Bowl and it would not be all that surprising. Every team below the Ravens would be considered some kind of surprise.
Baltimore is a more complete team than the No. 4 ranked team on this list but they play in a conference with both the Chiefs and Bills, which makes it tough. The Ravens are also a wild-card team as we speak, but the stars are aligning for Baltimore to usurp the Steelers as AFC North Champions.
Being the third seed would increase the Ravens' chances, but it would not improve their ranking on this list.
4. Philadelphia Eagles
The Philadelphia Eagles may have lost to the Commanders on Sunday but that likely would not have been the outcome if Hurts didn't get concussed or Jake Elliott was consistent. It was an impressive win for the Commanders no doubt, but it does not change anything Super Bowl-wise for the Eagles.
The Eagles have the benefit of playing in the NFC which is more loaded at wild card but does not have two top-tier contenders like the AFC. Instead, there is only one monster the Eagles would have to slay, and anything can happen in a one-game sample size.
3. Kansas City Chiefs
Yes, we are ranking the defending Super Bowl Champions third on this list. That does not mean they won't win it all, and nobody will be surprised if they become the first team in league history to win three Super Bowls in a row.
There is a reason why that has never been done before. Winning it all three years in a row is taxing and let's face it, it requires a lot of breaks going one team's way. Luck is absolutely a factor in deciding the Super Bowl, and the law of averages makes it harder for a team to get the right luck three years in a row.
The Chiefs are not the same team that won the Super Bowl last year but they are still finding ways to win. All of their playoff games will be close but as long as Patrick Mahomes has the football late, Chiefs fans will like their chances.
2. Buffalo Bills
The Buffalo Bills have shown more flaws than the Chiefs this season. Kansas City has been the more technical team out of necessity and it has paid off in the win-loss column. However, the best version of the 2024 Bills is better than the best version of the 2024 Chiefs.
The main question (barring an early-round upset for either team) is this: can the Bills go into Arrowhead in the AFC Championship Game and slay all of the demons circling them? Will they be able to finally get over the hump and beat the Chiefs in a playoff environment?
Those are questions that won't be answered until January. However, our early bet is that the Bills will finally figure it out.
1. Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions are the best team in football and that is not up for debate. Even with a slew of defensive injuries, the Lions have rolled out a well-above-average defense to pair with the team's league-leading offense.
The only thing that can stop the Lions right now is themselves. Whether it be self-induced mistakes by Jared Goff or the injuries piling up, the Lions are going to have to go classic Lions to not be in the Super Bowl as a favorite in February.