The 2024 NFL season has officially reached its halfway point and the playoff picture in both conferences is starting to take shape. To the surprise of some, the LA Chargers find themselves right in the thick of the AFC playoff picture despite all the hurdles the team has overcome.
Jim Harbaugh is a proven winner and he has proven that in his return to the NFL. The Chargers aren't just in the playoff picture this year, they are one of the best teams fighting for a playoff spot. With half a season left to play, the odds are in the sixth-seeded Chargers' favor.
Here is how the Bolts compare to the other six teams who are effectively in the AFC wild-card picture (within two games of a playoff spot).
NFL power rankings, AFC wild card edition:
6. Indianapolis Colts
- Actual AFC playoff seed: 8th
Maybe it is unfair to the Indianapolis Colts considering they have beaten good teams and are in every single game, but it is hard to sell Shane Steichen's squad as the top wild-card team in the AFC when they can't even figure out the quarterback position.
Anthony Richardson's struggles paved the way for Joe Flacco, who looked like the Flacco of old on Sunday Night Football against the Minnesota Vikings. As great as Flacco was last year, the fairytale story around him may be ending.
Indy has the Bills, Jets and Lions in the next three weeks. The pendulum can swing one way or the other with the Colts either locking their place as a playoff team or showing their true colors as a pretender.
5. Denver Broncos
- Actual AFC playoff seed: 7th
The Denver Broncos have a head-to-head win over another team on this list but they still check in as the second-lowest team ranked. While the Broncos look great when everything is going right, they mostly have proven that they cannot hang against true playoff teams.
The Chargers dominated the Broncos for an entire half only for Denver to make the game look closer with garbage-time touchdowns. Denver did not have the same benefit in Week 9 against the Ravens as the Broncos lost in blowout fashion.
Three of the Broncos' five wins came against teams who are fighting for the first overall pick in the 2025 NFL Draft. That means something.
4. New York Jets
- Actual AFC playoff seed: 10th
The Broncos defeated the Jets earlier this season but it really was a wonky outcome. There was a torrential downpour in that game and even then, the Jets did everything possible to give that game away.
If these two teams were to play 10 times, the Jets would probably win seven of them. That lone outcome should not put Denver ahead of New York in these power rankings.
As for the Jets, the 2024 season has not gone as planned as the Jets have been giving games away at a rapid pace. However, a big win over the Houston Texans in Week 9 proved the Jets can beat playoff teams, and may provide the team some momentum moving forward. If the Jets lose to the Arizona Cardinals next week, though, then their playoff dreams may officially be over.
3. Cincinnati Bengals
- Actual AFC playoff seed: 9th
The Bengals have also beaten up the worst teams in the league so it may seem contradictory to rank them two spots higher than the Broncos. After all, every team the Bengals have beaten this season has two or fewer wins.
That being said, Cincinnati could easily be several games better than the team is with small changes across several games. The Bengals lost to the Washington Commanders, Kansas City Chiefs and Ravens by a combined nine points. If the Bengals were just 1-2 in those three games they would be above .500. If they were 2-1 then they would be in a playoff spot.
The Bengals may not have the best resume in terms of wins and losses but they have one of the best quarterbacks in the entire sport. For that reason, they have to be considered a threat in the AFC wild-card picture.
2. LA Chargers
- Actual AFC playoff seed: 6th
The LA Chargers have one of the best quarterbacks in the sport and a defense that is finally supporting him. Los Angeles is the only team in the NFL that has not allowed 20 points in a game this season and that is likely going to continue with the Chargers playing the Titans in Week 10.
It has not been perfect as early injuries to Justin Herbert derailed the offense. But when the Chargers are humming they look like one of the hardest teams in football to beat. Even the three teams that did beat the Chargers this year had to play near-perfect games to do so.
If it wasn't for bad officiating and a fluky fumble from Jalen Reagor against the Cardinals the Chargers would be 6-2 and would be getting far more national attention. A 5-3 record is not as enticing, though, so the Chargers will continue being the sleeper team nobody wants to play.
1. Baltimore Ravens
- Actual AFC playoff seed: 5th
The Baltimore Ravens have some truly ugly losses on their resume (namely against the Raiders and Browns) but are still the best team in the AFC wild-card picture. At their best, the Ravens are a true Super Bowl contender with an MVP contender at the quarterback position.
Baltimore is not without its faults, though. The Ravens have one of the worst passing defenses in the league and have been exposed in the past because of it. That hole will have to be cleaned up if the Ravens are going to outlast some of the elite quarterbacks who play in the AFC.
The Ravens truly could go one of two ways. The team could get hot and run away with the AFC North after eventually usurping the Pittsburgh Steelers. Or, the team's issues could be brought to light and the Ravens may need to fight tooth and nail just to secure a playoff spot.