Week 4 is a little too early to start discussing the NFL MVP race with a long 3+ months of the season still to come. But there's certainly been a notable shift in the markets when it comes to Justin Herbert.
The Chargers' hot 3-0 has finally gotten their QB some positive attention both in the betting markets and the media. Here are the updated odds from DraftKings entering Week 4's slate:
Josh Allen +250
Lamar Jackson +300
Justin Herbert +500
Jordan Love +1600
Jalen Hurts +1600
Jayden Daniels +1700
Baker Mayfield +1800
Patrick Mahomes +1900
Matthew Stafford +2500
Jared Goff +3500
Chargers QB Justin Herbert's first real run at the NFL MVP award is now underway.
Allen, Jackson, and Herbert are the only candidates for the award with better than +1000 odds. For the most part, Allen and Jackson were expected to be at the top. It's been the NFL's version of the Nikola Jokic vs. Joel Embiid MVP debates in the past few seasons. Jackson won his second NFL MVP award in 2023 while Allen got his first in a very tight race between the two last season.
And then there's Herbert. While Los Angeles' QB has always been a decent preseason betting option, his chances to win NFL MVP have never materialized in the regular season. With the Chiefs running the AFC West to the degree that they have over the past decade and 2x NFL MVP Patrick Mahomes being at the forefront of it, Herbert has never quite gotten his moment to shine.
Chargers fans and some football media at large have always known how good Herbert was. LA simply needed to improve the roster and coaching staff to give the Oregon product a legitimate chance to compete.
Now that he has Jim Harbaugh, Joe Hortiz, and an improved roster, the Chargers are 3-0 with a two game lead (plus tiebreakers!) over the AFC West. Herbert's stats haven't looked too shabby either-he leads the league in passing yards with six touchdowns, one interception, and a 66.7% completion rate.
The newfound betting market and national respect for Herbert represent a substantial rise in the public's perception as well. When the first odds for MVP were set in May by BetMGM, the Chargers QB was just +2500 to win the award. Following a rough outing against the Texans in the Wild Card round, it was somewhat understandable. But Hortiz and Harbaugh stuck to their guns and put some weapons around their QB this offseason.
Herbert will look to continue his MVP push when the Chargers travel to New Jersey to face the Giants this Sunday at 10 AM PT.