Since the moment he first stepped foot on the field for the Los Angeles Chargers in 2020, Justin Herbert has been one of the most entertaining and productive quarterbacks. And let's get real here; he's also been one of the most disrespected QBs in the entire league.
Yes, the Oregon alum was named Offensive Rookie of the Year in 2020, as he should have been, seeing as how he threw for 4,336 yards, falling just 38 yards shy of Andrew Luck's rookie record, and tossed a rookie-record 31 touchdowns.
And yes, in 2021, he was named to the Pro Bowl after becoming the first quarterback in Chargers history to throw for 5,000 yards, ultimately ending the season with 5,014, ranking second in the league behind only Tom Brady (5,316), while also setting a new franchise record with 38 touchdown passes, ranking third in the NFL in that regard behind only Brady (43) and Matthew Stafford (41).
But was there even a hint of an All-Pro selection or a single vote for NFL MVP? No, there wasn't. And in the three seasons since, while Herbert has continued to put up big-time numbers in leading the Bolts to a pair of playoff appearances, he hasn't even earned a second trip to the Pro Bowl. Oh, he did earn a 0.2% share of the MVP vote in 2022 and a 0.8% share a season ago, but that really doesn't amount to much, does it?
Now, to be fair, there are a lot of great quarterbacks in this league. And it's really no secret that the NFL MVP is typically awarded to the quarterback of a team with the best—or at least one of the best—regular-season records, which the Chargers simply haven't had.
So, why is it that Herbert, who's been one of the best overall QBs in the league this season, ranking second in passing yards (2,610), third in touchdown passes (19-tied), and leading all signal-callers in rushing yards (324) in helping the Bolts to one of the top records in the NFL at 7-3 (just one game back of the best), continues to be disrespected in the MVP race?
Justin Herbert is tied for the seventh-longest NFL MVP betting odds
As we turn the page to Week 11 of the 2025 schedule, here's a look at the top 10 players in the NFL MVP betting odds, which is actually a list of 11, as two players are tied for the 10th slot.
Player | Team | NFL MVP Odds |
|---|---|---|
Matthew Stafford | Los Angeles Rams | +260 |
Drake Maye | New England Patriots | +275 |
Patrick Mahomes | Kansas City Chiefs | +500 |
Jonathan Taylor | Indianapolis Colts | +550 |
Josh Allen | Buffalo Bills | +700 |
Sam Darnold | Seattle Seahawks | +1100 |
Lamar Jackson | Baltimore Ravens | +2500 |
Jalen Hurts | Philadelphia Eagles | +2500 |
Justin Herbert | Los Angeles Chargers | +2500 |
Baker Mayfield | Tampa Bay Buccaneers | +2800 |
Jared Goff | Detroit Lions | +2800 |
Before we get back into Herbert, who, as you can see, is tied for seventh with +2500 odds, it certainly has to be said that it's great to see the Indianapolis Colts' Jonathan Taylor on this list, as a running back hasn't won NFL MVP since Adrian Peterson did so in 2012 as a member of the Minnesota Vikings.
But if Saquon Barkley didn't win it a season ago after rushing for more than 2,000 yards, odds are that Taylor won't either, not unless he breaks Eric Dickerson's all-time single-season rushing record of 2,105 yards, which he very well could if he maintains the pace he's on.
But even if that happens, there's a chance he could end up splitting votes with Colts QB Daniel Jones, much like San Francisco 49ers stars Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy split votes two years ago, ultimately finishing third and fourth, respectively.
As for this year, it'd be genuinely difficult to say Herbert deserves to have better odds than Matthew Stafford, Drake Maye, or maybe even Sam Darnold at this point. But he should be a little closer. And in no way, shape, or form should Patrick Mahomes or Josh Allen, as great as they are, be getting that much shorter odds than Herbert.
Okay, so Allen may have a better completion percentage at 70.4 to Herbert's 67.0, but Mahomes doesn't at 64.6. And both may have thrown fewer interceptions, with each tossing five to Herbert's eight. But let's not pretend that Allen or Mahomes has been forced to deal with the offensive line issues that the Chargers have been fighting through.
Think about this. Through the first 10 weeks of the season, Herbert has been pressured 173 times on his 418 dropbacks, which comes out to an absurd 41.4 percent, easily the highest in the NFL among regular starters. Allen? 34.1 percent. Mahomes? 31.6 percent. So, yeah, Herbert's going to have a few more errant passes.
Trust us, we could keep going, as we haven't even mentioned the fact that the Chiefs wouldn't even be in the playoffs if they started today. Oops, I guess we did mention it.
Getting beyond Allen and Mahomes, how does Lamar Jackson have the exact same odds as Herbert? Yes, Jackson is incredible and has the Baltimore Ravens back on track, but he's appeared in just six games thus far and is 3-3 in those starts. Think Herbert would be tied for seventh if he'd missed that many games? I think you know the answer to that.
Look, we're not saying Justin Herbert deserves to be the NFL MVP frontrunner right now. But he undoubtedly deserves better odds than he's currently getting and certainly deserves to be involved in more of the conversations among the talking heads.
All betting odds courtesy of DraftKings. Game odds refresh periodically and are subject to change. The content in this article should not be considered betting advice. Gambling involves risk, and one should only gamble with funds that one can comfortably afford to lose. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem and wants help, call 1-800-GAMBLER.