J.K. Dobbins signed a one-year flier deal with the LA Chargers a year ago with only $50,000 guaranteed. Other than a short stint on the IR, Dobbins shot down any injury concerns with a productive season as the Chargers' lead back.
Dobbins now enters free agency with a higher price tag than a year ago. With Gus Edwards and Kimani Vidal as the only running backs under contract, the Chargers have a decision to make with Dobbins (and who may potentially replace him).
Bringing back Dobbins at a high price is a risk even the Chargers may not be willing to take. However, even after a great season, Dobbins' value on the open market might be limited. Pro Football Focus certainly doesn't think Dobbins will cost much, projecting the former Ohio State running back to sign a two-year, $7 million contract with $4 million guaranteed.
J.K. Dobbins' contract projection is perfect for the Chargers
It will be interesting to see how the running back market takes shape this offseason after the successes of Derrick Henry and Saquon Barkley with their respective teams. Those two may have raised the entire market for free-agent running backs.
This year's free-agent class is rather thin as well. Dobbins, Aaron Jones, Najee Harris and Nick Chubb are the only notable backs hitting free agency this offseason. With such a thin market, a team desperate for a running back may overspend on Dobbins.
PFF does not see that happening, which is ideal for the Chargers. Even with cap space, Los Angeles has to be smart and cannot sign Dobbins to an overpriced contract simply because he played well last season. It is important to keep the context of the entire roster-building process in mind.
A two-year, $7 million contract with $4 million guaranteed is not restrictive at all. Dobbins' cap hit for the 2025 season would likely be in the $2.5-3 million range at this price and the team could theoretically get out of the deal in 2026 with a small dead-cap hit if needed.
This cheap price allows the Chargers to bring Dobbins back while also committing draft resources to the running back position. The 2025 running back class is deep and the Chargers may be able to find Dobbins' suitor in the middle rounds of April's draft.
If Dobbins cost more then the Chargers would be forced to draft a running back higher as there are not many free-agent options to replace him (and if he went for an expensive price tag, so would the other running backs).
But at this price, the Chargers could have their cake and eat it too. There is no reason for the Chargers not to sign Dobbins at this projected price tag.