Philip Rivers is, improbably, back in the NFL. Five years after his last NFL snap and four months after signing a one-day contract to retire with the LA Chargers, Rivers has signed to the Indianapolis Colts' practice squad to give it one last go.
It's still unclear how much, or if at all, Rivers will actually play for the Colts down the stretch. But one thing is for certain: if things start going sideways, and Rivers is their only hope of making the playoffs, the gunslinging high-school head coach will be back on an NFL field.
And for LA Chargers fans, this has created a dream scenario. The Chargers already lost to the Colts earlier this year, but is there a way Rivers could play his former team for the first time ever in the NFL Playoffs?
Yes. There are many ways the Chargers could see the Colts in the NFL Playoffs. And most of them include Rivers making his return to Los Angeles as the visiting team.
How the Chargers can face Philip Rivers and the Colts in the NFL Playoffs:
Scenario 1: Chargers host the Colts in the AFC Wild-Card Round
As it stands right now, the Chargers are the No. 5 seed in the AFC with a 9-4 record and the Colts are the No. 8 seed with an 8-5 record. For the Chargers to host the Colts in the Wild Card Round, the Chargers would need to surpass the Denver Broncos in the AFC West, and the Colts would need to usurp the Houston Texans (or Buffalo Bills, although that's more unlikely) for a wild-card spot.
The Chargers are two games back of the Broncos in the AFC West. But they still have a head-to-head matchup in Week 18, and the Chargers would secure the tiebreaker by winning that game. Los Angeles just needs to finish with the same record as Denver to win the AFC West, assuming they win in Week 18.
The Broncos play the Green Bay Packers, Jacksonville Jaguars, Kansas City Chiefs, and Chargers to finish the season. If the Broncos go 2-2 in those games (assuming a loss in Week 18), the Chargers must go 4-0. If they go 1-3, the Chargers must go 3-1. If they go 0-4, the Chargers just need to go 2-2.
The Colts, who have the same record as the Texans, also have a Week 18 against the team they are competing against for a playoff spot. Houston would still have the tiebreaker over Indianapolis even if the Colts win in Week 18. Indianapolis needs to finish with a better record in the last four games than the Texans (with a harder schedule).
If the Chargers don't jump the Jaguars, then the Colts would need to jump to the No. 6 seed. This situation also requires the Buffalo Bills sliding down to the No. 7 seed (or missing the playoffs altogether). Buffalo currently has the tiebreaker over the Colts due to record in common games. Thus, the Colts would need to finish two games better than the Bills to jump them in the standings.
The Chargers and Colts cannot play as the 4-5 matchup. It's actually impossible for the Chargers to be the No. 4 seed at all, as they need at least 11 wins to win the division and the Steelers can't pass the Chargers in the standings because the head-to-head tiebreaker.
Scenario 2: Chargers host the Colts in the AFC Divisional Round
The Chargers could theoretically host the Colts in the Divisional Round if they strike gold and secure a first-round bye. To do this, the Chargers would need to win out, would need the Broncos and Patriots to go 2-2 in their final four, and would need the Jaguars to lose at least one game.
If that happened, the Colts would just need to be the lowest seed advancing to play the Chargers.
The only way the Chargers could host the Colts in the second round as the No. 2 seed is if the Colts improbably became the No. 5 seed. The Bolts would still also need the No. 6 seed to beat the No. 3 seed for that matchup to happen. The Chargers wouldn't need that if they were the No. 3 seed and the Colts were the No. 5 seed.
Scenario 3: Colts host the Chargers in the first round
The Colts can still win the division, but it would take some help. Indianapolis does not have the tiebreaker over either the Texans or the Jaguars even if the Colts beat both teams down the stretch.
Thus, the Colts would have to finish with a better record than both teams to secure the AFC South crown. To do so, Indianapolis needs to finish one game better than the Texans and two games better than the Jaguars. If they can win both head-to-head matchups it is possible.
Heck, the No. 1 seed technically isn't even out of reach, although it's very unlikely. The most likely seeding for the Colts if they were to win the division is the No. 3 seed, which would require the Chargers to finish as the No. 6 seed. For that to happen, the Chargers would need to finish with a better record than Jacksonville/Houston, but a worse record than Buffalo.
Scenario 4: Colts host the Chargers in the Divisional Round
This is essentially the same logic as the Chargers hosting the Colts. Indianapolis would either need to make a miraculous run at the No. 1 seed and the Chargers would need to be the lowest seed that advances, or, the Colts would have to win a Wild-Card Round game as a No. 2-4 seed and hope the Chargers aren't the lowest seed advancing.
Scenario 5: Chargers-Colts AFC Championship
There is a way in which the Chargers and Colts could dodge each other because of seeding and only play in the AFC Championship. There are too many variables and moving parts that could lead to this happening to outline them all.
The most likely, though, would be the Colts getting in as the No. 7 seed and upsetting their way to the AFC Championship. If the Chargers do the same as the No. 3-6 seed, they would play the Colts with a chance to go to the Super Bowl.
The same situation is possible if the Chargers are the No. 7 seed and the Colts make it through as the No. 3-6 seed.
Odds of the Chargers and Colts playing in the NFL Playoffs:
Despite all of these moving parts and possible scenarios, it's still relatively unlikely that the Chargers and Colts square off in the NFL Playoffs. We asked ChatGPT to run simulations to see how likely this matchup is, and the odds aren't in Chargers fans favor. According to 50,000 simulations, there's just a 2.2% chance the two teams play in the NFL Playoffs.
There's a 2% chance they play in the AFC Wild-Card Round, a 0.03% chance they play in the AFC Divisional Round, and a 0.07% chance they play in the AFC Championship Game.
So you're telling me there's a chance?