Coming into Week 16 trailing the Denver Broncos by two games in the AFC West, the Los Angeles Chargers did what they needed to do to keep themselves in the mix on Sunday with an emphatic 34-17 victory over the Dallas Cowboys, improving to 11-4 on the season.
And just a few hours later, the Bolts received an early Christmas present from the Jacksonville Jaguars, who went into Empower Field at Mile High and ended the Broncos' 11-game winning streak with a 34-20 win, thus dropping Denver to 12-3.
With this gift from the Jags, the Chargers now control their own destiny in the AFC West, as a win over the Houston Texans in Week 17 and a win over the Broncos in Week 18 gives the Bolts their first division title since 2009. And that's no matter what Denver does on Christmas night against the Kansas City Chiefs. But if Los Angeles loses either one of those two final games, the division goes to Denver.
But for the sake of argument, let's just assume the Bolts run the table to finish 13-4. If that happens, the Broncos and Texans are taken out of the equation for the No. 1 seed. And the winner of the AFC North, whether it be the Pittsburgh Steelers or the Baltimore Ravens, has no mathematical shot either.
As such, the only teams that could match or surpass the Chargers' 13 wins would be the New England Patriots (12-3), the Jacksonville Jaguars (11-4), and the Buffalo Bills (11-4).
The Chargers will need some help to win the No. 1 seed in the AFC
Let's take this team by team to start and then get into the three-way scenarios.
New England Patriots
Obviously, for the Chargers to have any shot at the No. 1 seed, they'll need the Patriots to lose one of their final two games, which doesn't look promising, as New England gets the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Miami Dolphins in Week 18.
But if the Pats do get upset in one of those two games but still win the AFC East at 13-4, the Chargers would win a two-way tiebreaker, as they'd have a better record in conference games (10-2 to 8-4).
Buffalo Bills
The Bills, of course, are also hoping for the Pats to lose at some point, as that's the only way they can win the AFC East.
And if Buffalo, which takes on the Philadelphia Eagles in Week 17 and the Jets in Week 18, does win the division by winning out to get to 13-4, Los Angeles wins the two-way tiebreaker, again due to having the better record in conference games (10-2 to 9-3).
Jacksonville Jaguars
If the Jags win out with victories over the Indianapolis Colts and Tennessee Titans to win the AFC South at 13-4, the Chargers simply can't clinch the No. 1 seed.
And the reason for that, of course, is due to the Chargers taking that embarrassing 35-6 loss in Jacksonville back in Week 11. And this works in any tiebreaker scenario.
If only the Chargers and Jaguars finish 13-4, the Bolts obviously lose the head-to-head tiebreaker.
3-way scenarios don't favor the Bolts, as the loss to the Jags comes into play there as well
Getting into the three-way scenarios, if the Chargers, Jaguars, and the winner of the AFC East (which wouldn't matter) all finish 13-4, the first tiebreaker involving three teams with the same record is a head-to-head sweep. But as that is only applicable if one team has defeated each of the others or if one team has lost to each of the others, that doesn't come into play here, as neither Los Angeles nor Jacksonville played either New England or Buffalo this season.
As such, the next tiebreaker would be the best record within the conference. As mentioned above, the Chargers would be 10-2 in that regard, but so would the Jaguars. Meanwhile, if the Bills finish 13-4 overall, they would be 9-3 against AFC opponents. And if the Patriots finish 13-4 overall, they would be 8-4.
As a result, the AFC East winner would be removed from the equation, at which point the Chargers and Jags would start the process over in a two-way tiebreaker, which the Bolts obviously lose.
So, obviously, in addition to needing the Patriots to lose at some point, the Bolts also need the Jaguars to lose at least one of their final two games.
Easy enough, right?