The Los Angeles Chargers had some serious soul-searching to do during their bye in Week 7.
After beginning the season 0-6, the postseason was already out of the question. But with Mike McDaniel staying on as offensive play-caller, there have already been some major adjustments promised in terms of this team's approach. We'll figure out what it means over the next couple of weeks to "simplify" this offense—but the defense has been good enough that even a mediocre showing on the other side of the ball should be enough for Los Angeles to come away with a win, at least eventually.
It may not come in Week 8 against the Los Angeles Rams. Although the Rams offense has had its widely-publicized struggles this season, and the team as a whole has fallen short so far of the Super Bowl expectations prognosticators set for them in the preseason, that unit rebounded with an excellent performance against the Las Vegas Raiders while the Chargers rested up. For what it's worth, this Raiders team isn't nearly as non-competitive as it was last year.
Of course, any success on the Chargers' part is going to rely on a major offensive turnaround. But I've said it since about Week 4—Los Angeles' first victory, whenever it comes, is inevitably going to happen on the shoulders of its defense. O'Leary's quiet success utilizing the blitz this season could be the thing that finally helps them eek one out, even in a disadvantageous matchup in Week 8.
Chargers defense is going to need to be at the top of its game against the Rams in Week 8
Sure, with Davante Adams out and the Rams offense as a whole struggling to consistently gain momentum through the air, this might not be the formidable matchup we though it would be when the schedule came out over the summer. But the Rams are still second in total passing yards and seventh in total rushing through seven weeks. They are ninth in total EPA per play this season—the Chargers are 32nd.
Any chance the Chargers have of winning this game is going to rest on the defense's ability to drag the Rams down into the muck and mire. Although the effort in Week 6 against the Kansas City Chiefs was a concerning step back, O'Leary has shown an ability to do that in his short stint as an NFL play caller.
Los Angeles is currently third in the league total passing yards allowed. Although there's a small caveat there because of the bye week, O'Leary has done an excellent job keeping this secondary intact even with Derwin James Jr. and Donte Jackson out. With James now out long-term, that's certainly a comforting thought.
More importantly, though, O'Leary has found a way to steadily incorporate the blitz in his defensive approach—and he's reaping the benefits. At Western Michigan, O'Leary was known for his aggressive pressure packages and exotic blitzes. The Chargers haven't blitzed much this season (unsurprising given the architecture of their scheme dating back to Jesse Minter), but they've been highly effective when they've done so, especially sending one of the two inside linebackers or working a safety down in the mix. They've posted a 52.5% pressure rate when they've blitzed this season—good for second in the NFL.
For all the crown jewels in Matthew Stafford's game, moreover, operating under pressure hasn't consistently been one of them. He's completed just 65 of his 141 passing attempts this season when under pressure, and he's thrown six interceptions on 13 turnover-worthy plays across 171 of those dropbacks.
The Chargers haven't been close to the highest pressure-earning team in the NFL this season, but if there's a way for O'Leary to limit the Rams passing offense over the course of the game, a well-timed blitz could very well lead to a play that swings the game in the Chargers' favor.
Of course, this will likely come as the seventh loss for the Chargers on the season, and then we can truly start grasping for a win in Week 9 against the Houston Texans. But it doesn't hurt to hope, and O'Leary's scheme has provided enough of that so far that it's worth putting some stock into him heading into Week 8,
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