It's painful to admit it say it out loud, but the LA Chargers should thank the Denver Broncos. On a day where the Chargers were punched in the mouth by another AFC Wild Card contender, the Broncos upset the Kansas City Chiefs to send the Bolts a lifeline.
Denver hosted the Chiefs as 3.5-point underdogs and didn't just cover: they won by a field goal. Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid now find themselves with a 5-5 record, 3.5 games back of the AFC West crown. Winning the division is out of the equation. Making the playoffs is going to be a grind.
This is a blessing for the Chargers, who fell to 7-4 on the season with the loss to the Jacksonville Jaguars. Beating the Jaguars would have catapulted the Chargers into near-clinch territory. A loss brought the Chargers back down to Earth, but the Chiefs added some much-needed cushion.
Chargers' playoff odds increase drastically thanks to Chiefs loss
The Athletic's Playoff Upshot model gave the Chargers a 68% chance of making the playoffs after losing to the Jaguars. With a win, the Chargers' odds would have been 93%. That's neither here nor there.
Those odds climbed to 71% after the Chiefs' loss. It may not seem like that big of a jump, but when breaking down the playoff picture, the Chargers clearly have an advantage over Kansas City.
At 5-5, the Chiefs are two wins behind the Chargers and don't have the head-to-head matchup. The Chargers beat the Chiefs in Week 1; another win would essentially clinch a playoff spot. Los Angeles doesn't need a win, though, as the team's Week 1 win keeps the Chiefs from having the head-to-head tiebreaker.
If the head-to-head record is tied, the tiebreaker reverts to conference record. This is where the Chargers have a huge advantage. Los Angeles is 6-2 against the AFC thus far this season. Kansas City is 2-4. Even if Kansas City wins out against the AFC, the team would need the Chargers to lose another AFC game just to be tied in that tiebreaker.
Sure, it would have been nice to beat the Jaguars and essentially lock up a playoff spot with the Chiefs losing to the Broncos. And yes, the Chargers would have been just one game back in striking distance for the AFC West crown with a win overJacksonville.
But it's nice to have a win on a day where the Chargers were beaten down bad, even if that win had to come via a hated division rival. Thanks to the Broncos, the Chargers are in the driver's seat and control their own destiny with plenty of cushion of the biggest threat there is: the Chiefs.
We'll never say it again so Broncos fans better screenshot this article... but thank you Sean Payton and Bo Nix.