The Los Angeles Chargers, needless to say, are going to need a win before their Week 7 bye if they're going to stand any chance of turning this season around.
At this point, with an 0-4 record, the playoffs seem like a lost cause. But in Year 3 under Jim Harbaugh and Joe Hortiz, simply vying for a high draft pick isn't an option. The Chargers are going to need to show some major improvement over the rest of their slate if they want to avoid absolute disaster.
Expecting a pair of wins against major divisional opponents in Weeks 5 and 6 simply isn't reasonable. But is it already time to write off this Week 5 matchup against the Denver Broncos?
From a certain perspective, it almost certainly is. The Chargers are slated to start a pair of rookies at their two tackle spots, and if Branson Taylor isn't ready yet to return from his upper body injury, they'll also be forced to start UDFA Jacob Spomer at center after moving Jake Slaughter over to left guard. The offense has been disastrous enough with Joe Alt and Rashawn Slater in the fold. How could it look any better with those pieces out of the mix?
But Justin Herbert played his best football of the season last week when things broke down, and that at least provides a glimmer of hope for him to provide a miraculous performance even with the Denver defense bearing down upon him.
More importantly, though, this Broncos offense is in turmoil currently, and it's undertaking a change in play callers in Week 5 as Sean Payon reclaims his duties. If Chris O'Leary and this Chargers defense can stifle whatever Denver throws at them, there will be at least a slim window for Los Angeles to come away with a desperately needed win.
This game is essentially a scheduled loss for the Chargers, but the defense presents at least a narrow path to an unlikely victory
Again, this Chargers offense hasn't performed well enough this season to come away with a victory against even the weakest of opponents. It's currently the second-worst unit in the league in terms of EPA/play, and with the protection broken down against a lethal Denver defense, it's reasonable to expect a disaster in Week 5.
But how else are you supposed to sustain yourself at this point in the season other than a cautious does of optimism?
O'Leary's defense has shown major improvement since its poor outings against the Arizona Cardinals and Las Vegas Raiders. Although they weren't able to limit the Buffalo Bills on the ground, they were able to keep Josh Allen in the pocket and consistently under pressure in Week 4 even with a weakened secondary. Without Derwin James Jr. and Donte Jackson in Week 5 against the Seattle Seahawks, they were still able to limit Sam Darnold and the rest of the Seattle offense from churning out explosive plays. The 30 points they let up in that matchup was the fault of advantages granted by the offense over the course of the game.
For a first-time play caller desperately trying to keep the Chargers' season afloat, that's a pair of impressive accomplishments.
The Broncos offense, meanwhile, is much weaker than that of either the Bills or Seahawks. The unit is 20th in the league in EPA/play so far this season, It's 29th in total rushing yards and 21st in total passing. While Sean Payton may look to lean more heavily into the passing game than Davis Webb did in his place, the Chargers have an opportunity to stop Denver dead in its tracks with their run defense—which is still largely intact to this point in the season.
The interior defensive line and the linebacker corps, for the most part, have been excellent against the run this season. They held Jeremiyah Love to just 41 yards on 11 carries in Week 1 before holding Ashton Jeanty to 48 yards on 21 carries in Week 2. The Seahawks also struggled to get anything going consistently on the ground against this unit.
The only shot this team has of winning this game follows the formula we saw for much of last season—drag the opposing team into a defensive slugfest and pray for a miraculous drive from Herbert at the end of the game. As questionable as the Chargers offense is right now, Denver, at the very least, is a prime candidate for that sort of matchup.
Add us as a preferred source on Google