The Los Angeles Chargers are now set to head to the playoffs, with their last two matchups of the season determining who they will ultimately face off against in the first-round.
While there is profound hope for the Chargers to earn a playoff win for the first time since 2018 given the way that their defense has performed since their bye week, their ceiling, as painful as it may be, is likely capped there.
Even if they escape the first round with a favorable matchup, each of the teams who are likely to advance pose unique and inescapable problems for a Los Angeles team that has faced profound struggles this season.
Therefore, while a singular playoff win would be a massive step forward for this new coaching staff, fans must temper their expectations.
The Chargers have virtually no shot at the AFC Championship game
What the Chargers and Justin Herbert have accomplished this season, given the injury struggles they have faced, has been nothing short of remarkable. Even in the absence of both Rashawn Slater and Joe Alt, they have ascended, at the very least, to a Wild Card spot and a back-to-back 11-win seasons.
At the same time, it's important to be realistic about where this team is at currently. They have one of the worst offensive lines in the league, having allowed 51 sacks on the season. Apart from their matchup against the Dallas Cowboys, their offense has been severely limited for much of the season as a result.
While their defense has been one of the most dynamic units in the NFL, this will likely not be enough to earn them two playoff wins.
A matchup against a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers in the first round would be ideal and is entirely possible.
Past that, however, they would likely be stuck facing one of the Houston Texans, New England Patriots, Denver Broncos, Jacksonville Jaguars, or Buffalo Bills depending on how the seeding plays out.
The Broncos, Jaguars and Texans each have their own lethal pass rushes that would present nearly-insurmountable threats. While the struggles of the Broncos' and the Texans' offenses would present intriguing opportunities, it is unlikely that Los Angeles would be able to overcome their defenses.
Meanwhile, the Patriots and the Bills each have absolutely dynamic offenses that could put the Chargers' defense on their heels. Los Angeles's recipe for success has centered around stifling their opponents on that side of the ball, and the viability of that game-plan would be questionable at best against those opponents.
Therefore, while this season should go down as a categorical success for the team, their limitations will almost certainly prove to be insuperable when it comes down to it.