The Los Angeles Chargers, with their 31-14 win over the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 13, took a major step toward earning a playoff spot, with their chances now sitting at 62% according to The Athletic's NFL Playoff Simulator.
Yet, with the Denver Broncos' nail-biting overtime win over the Washington Commanders on Sunday Night Football, they now sit with firm control of the division and a real shot at the first seed in the AFC, meaning that, while it is technically still a possibility for the Chargers to take control of the division, their path to the playoffs lies firmly through the Wild Card.
With two games separating them and Denver, Los Angeles will face a gauntlet to end the season, matching up against the Eagles, the Chiefs, the Cowboys, the Texans and the aforementioned Broncos to round off their 2025 campaign.
Chargers now know exactly what they need to accomplish to earn a playoff spot
At the start of the season, it appeared as though the Chargers would be in prime position to control the AFC West over the course of the season. They began the season with a 3-0 record against divisional teams, and the Broncos and the Chiefs each looked to have their own limiting struggles.
Yet, with the struggles that they have seen on their own offense, that quickly proved to not be the case. Since that time, the Chargers have dropped games to the New York Giants, the Washington Commanders, the Indianapolis Colts and the Jacksonville Jaguars.
Combined with the defensive dominance we have seen from Denver this year, it appears as though the Broncos are perfectly poised to run away with the division.
Therefore, the Chargers' competition has now fully crystallized. They will likely be competing with the Colts, the Chiefs, the Bills, the Texans and the Steelers for a place among the three AFC Wild Card teams. They have lost to the Colts, but they have tiebreakers, currently, over the Chiefs and the Steelers.
Given the way things are shaking out, this makes their matchup against Houston in Week 17 an absolute must-win. They must, moreover, likely win at least two of their last five games, leaving them with a 10-7 record and the ability for their tie-breakers with the Texans, Chiefs and Steelers to take effect.
With the way they played in Week 13, there still remains significant hope for them to pull this off. Yet, their upcoming schedule will be much, much tougher than many anticipated when the season began.