As disappointing as the Los Angeles Chargers' loss of Odafe Oweh was in the moment, it makes perfect sense in hindsight.
Oweh was excellent after he arrived with the Chargers mid-season, posting 7.5 sacks and eight tackles for loss across his 12 games with the team. He was a highly physical presence, and this allowed him to be the perfect complement to Khalil Mack and Tuli Tuipulotu.
But if his true market value was anywhere close to the four-year, $96 million deal he signed with the Washington Commanders in free agency, the Chargers were never really going to re-sign him in the first place. The purpose of the trade, therefore, was two-fold.
Firstly, Los Angeles gained themselves an impactful defensive piece for most of the season at the relatively low cost of Alohi Gilman and a Day 3 pick swap. Secondly, they gained themselves ample leverage in Joe Hortiz's much-beloved compensatory pick formula.
With the initial period of free agency having closed (free agents signed after the Draft don't factor into the formula), Dan Parr at NFL.com projects Los Angeles to receive a third-round comp pick when it's all said and done. The Chargers, however, must cheer on Oweh in Washington this season if they want to achieve their ultimate goal.
Chargers' compensatory pick in 2027 will depend on Odafe Oweh's health and role in Washington
Here's what Parr had to say about the Chargers' comp pick situation:
"The Commanders did not spend an early draft pick on an edge rusher, so I’m expecting the highly paid Oweh to play enough snaps to ensure the Bolts are awarded a third-round selection." Dan Parr, NFL.com
The compensatory pick formula is complicated, but it boils down to this. If you lose more total value in free agency than you gain, you're eligible to earn one or more selections in the third round or later in the following year's draft. Contract value is calculated based on annual salary, snap counts, and awards.
Los Angeles is already well-positioned given how few major signings they made in the early waves of free agency.
Oweh, for his part, should be slated for a major role with the Commanders. Even after adding K'Lavon Chaisson on a one-year, $11 million deal, Washington will be looking toward Oweh as their alpha pass rusher.
There are certainly questions about whether he's up for the task. Outside of his 10-sack 2024 campaign in Baltimore and his tenure with the Chargers, he's struggled to produce consistently across five seasons in the NFL. But the Commanders have virtually no options outside of Oweh to take on major pass-rushing snaps. As long as Oweh is available, he should receive the lion's share of opportunities in Washington.
The Chargers, therefore, must root for Oweh's health (and perhaps his continued production) even beyond the end of his tenure in Los Angeles.
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