A lot of offseason conversations about the Chargers were centered around the season that new DC Chris O'Leary would have. With OC Mike McDaniel coming into the fold, an ascension on offense felt like a certainty. The question at the time was whether O'Leary was capable of maintaining LA's status as a top 10 defense. If there was a dropoff from Jesse Minter, how much of one would it be?
Fast forward to November and the tables have turned. McDaniel's offense is dead last (32nd, -0.231) in offensive EPA. They also have the worst offensive success rate in the league and worst dropback EPA. For the last three weeks or so, HC Jim Harbaugh has had to be asked if McDaniel will remain play caller. Imagine telling this to someone back in January when the Chargers hired the former Dolphins head coach.
While Mike McDaniel has flopped as OC, Chris O'Leary has been a positive surprise for the Chargers' defense.
Meanwhile, the Chargers have been a borderline top-10 defense with O'Leary at the helm. They rank 9th in defensive EPA. Over the last month from Weeks 4-8, they've ranked even higher at 6th. It's a defense that's gotten better throughout the season. Meanwhile, they've dealt with key secondary injuries. Star S Derwin James Jr. has not played since Week 3 vs. Buffalo. They're also thin at cornerback right now with injuries to James, Donte Jackson, and Rodney Shelley. And yet, it hasn't mattered for O'Leary.
The Chargers have seemingly nailed their replacement for Minter. And the unfortunate part is that it won't matter this season. If the offense was even league average, this is a team that at minimum is in the hunt for a playoff spot. Instead, they have nothing to show for it.
O'Leary's success also creates murky offseason discussions. Would they run it back with Jim Harbaugh to keep O'Leary and just hire a different OC? If they move on from Harbaugh, is keeping O'Leary still a priority for the organization? A truly bad season that may result in firings creates complications for the Chargers.
O'Leary has also been put in compromised situations by the offense. Los Angeles has the third worst turnover differential in the league at -6. Field position has also been an issue. This past week, the Rams were able to start multiple drives in Chargers' territory due to turnovers. O'Leary has continued to bail the Chargers out of these sorts of situations.
In an otherwise terrible season, O'Leary's emergence gives the Chargers a little bit of positivity going forward. The question in the offseason will be what happens to the rest of the organization around him. It's just sad that the defense's performance won't matter this year.
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