The Houston Texans are locked into the fourth seed in the AFC and will be playing their starters in Week 18 regardless. The LA Chargers, meanwhile, are also gearing up to play their starters if the team has a chance to become the fifth seed to play the Texans in round one.
Los Angeles needs to beat the Las Vegas Raiders in Week 18 and needs the Pittsburgh Steelers to lose to the Cincinnati Bengals. If both of those things happen, the Chargers will be in Houston to take on the Texans with a chance to advance to play the Kansas City Chiefs (assuming both the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens win in round one).
This is the path Chargers fans have dreamt about and they are not alone. The team itself also sees the value in jumping to the fifth seed. On Monday, head coach Jim Harbaugh made it abundantly clear the Chargers want to play the Texans in the AFC Wild-Card Round.
Chargers HC Jim Harbaugh: "We're playing to move up. We'd love to be in the 5th seed."
— Alex Insdorf (@alexinsdorf99) December 30, 2024
"That's where things stand for us. Plan is win." pic.twitter.com/3f1iRpgUlF
Chargers' HC Jim Harbaugh clearly wants to play the Texans in the NFL Playoffs
Harbaugh is not mincing his words here at all. If all things were equal, the Chargers would rest the starters in Week 18 and let the chips fall where they may. But the chips are not equal, and Harbaugh is making that abundantly clear.
The entire reason the Chargers would "love" to be the fifth seed is to play the Texans instead of having to play the Ravens. It is not like the Chargers will get a home game, or that the second-round matchup would be any easier. This solely has to do with wanting to play the Texans.
And while Houston is obviously still a great team that will be favored against the Chargers, it is hard to blame Harbaugh for wanting this matchup. After all, the Chargers already lost to the Ravens, who also just walloped the Texans 31-2 on Christmas.
Unfortunately, there are two sides to every coin and Harbaugh just gave the Texans marquee bulletin board material if the two teams end up playing. The Texans now know that the Chargers want to play them, and from their point of view, the Chargers better be careful what they ask for.
Regardless of any added motivation for DeMeco Ryans' guys, the fact remains that the Chargers' best chance of making a deep playoff run is to be the fifth seed. Los Angeles needs to play Houston in round one to win and set up a matchup against a Chiefs team the Bolts already almost beat twice.
Anything can truly happen if this is the path the Chargers take. However, if they end up with the sixth seed, the team's miracle playoff run may end in the first round.
Editor's note: The original version of this article incorrectly stated the Houston Texans were "locked in the fifth seed" when they are, in fact, locked in the fourth seed. The article has been updated for accuracy.