The Los Angeles Chargers have a Quentin Johnston decision to make this offseason.
With his fifth-year option looming by May 1, Los Angeles will need to decide whether Johnston's production through his three seasons with the team warrants an $18 million payday in 2027.
At times, Johnston has shown flashes of being a formidable downfield and yards-after-catch threat, posting a string of remarkable performances to begin his 2025 campaign. At others, he has struggled with frustrating drops and been largely sidelined from the team's offensive scheme.
In all likelihood, he has not earned that $18 million option.
But that leaves the Chargers with an even broader decision. If they know Johnston is not likely to stay with the organization, why not attempt to trade him for draft capital? Especially given the dearth of selections they have in this year's draft, it seems like a viable option on the surface.
The most basic rebuttal is that, at this point in time, Johnston would likely only retrieve a Day 3 pick.
In Daniel Popper of The Athletic's recent mailbag round-up, however, the Chargers writer made an ever stronger case against trading Johnston. In the hypothetical scenario where Johnston takes a step forward in Mike McDaniel's offense, he could easily retrieve Los Angeles a compensatory pick through Joe Hortiz's much-beloved formula.
Knowing Hortiz, this might be the ultimate reason why Johnston isn't moved this offseason.
Quentin Johnston could be primed for his best season yet under Mike McDaniel
Here's what Popper had to say about Johnston's hypothetical 2026 performance:
"Even if the Chargers decline the fifth-year option, they get to see him in McDaniel’s scheme. Johnston is under contract for 2026 regardless. Let’s say McDaniel maximizes Johnston’s skill set. Johnston has a great year as a result. He then heads into free agency in 2027 as an attractive piece. Johnston could sign for $15 million to $17 million per year elsewhere as a free agent."- Daniel Popper
Johnston flew out of the gates in 2025. Across his first four games, he amassed 337 receiving yards and four touchdowns on 22 receptions. He then saw his role decrease down the stretch of the season only to burst back onto the scene in the Chargers' final two games.
Johnston's own inconsistencies as a pass-catcher certainly had a part to play in his up-and-down production. But Roman's offense, and the pitfalls of his scheme that became clear over the course of the season, also had a part to play.
McDaniel, for his part, has ample experience weaponizing speedy receivers. Johnston is not at the level that Tyreek Hill or Jaylen Waddle were at early in McDaniel's time in Miami. But McDaniel was able to scheme those two receivers open more often than not, using the leverage he created with easy, underneath completions to open up home-run shots for his two primary pass-catching weapons.
The general expectation is that the Chargers' offense will see a resurgence in 2026 under McDaniel. Johnston has the unique length and speed to take advantage of that rising tide.
If it works out and Johnston ultimately commands somewhere in that $18 million range in free agency, don't expect Los Angeles to bring him back. It would be a painful loss, but it would be one that's built in to the way Hortiz wants to run the organization.
If it doesn't work out and Johnston's value remains low on the open market, perhaps there's a world where the Chargers are willing to extend him. Either way, straddling the fence in this manner feels exactly like a move Hortiz would make.
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