The Los Angeles Chargers are in a significantly better position heading into 2026 than they were last season. It's difficult to argue otherwise.
Although the first two years under Jim Harbaugh haven't yielded the success many fans would like, they've built the infrastructure to maximize their talent on both sides of the ball. Chris O'Leary should be able to replicate and expand upon Jesse Minter's zone-heavy defensive scheme. Mike McDaniel, for his part, should bring an entirely new outlook on his side of the ball.
They have a strong young core, and they have the veteran pieces in place to make this roster competitive on a week-to-week basis. In short, if everything comes together, they should be entering Super Bowl contention in 2026.
But a difficult schedule, marked by a seven-game gauntlet surrounding their bye week, will make exceeding even last season's win total, let alone winning the AFC West, an uphill battle. Thankfully, that's not the metric Los Angeles should be measuring itself against in 2026.
The goal shouldn't be 12 or 13 wins. It should be to enter the playoffs with a formidable enough attack on both sides of the ball to truly be a threat for the Super Bowl.
What truly matters for the Chargers in 2026 isn't their win total
Of course, surpassing the 11-win mark the Chargers have set over the past two seasons would be nice— a tangible sign of progress. But their schedule could make that feat difficult.
In my game-by-game predictions, I had them losing to the Seattle Seahawks, Kansas City Chiefs, Los Angeles Rams, New England Patriots, and to the Denver Broncos in Week 18 while they rested their starters. That puts them at 12 wins on the season. Even that is optimistic.
As long as they can exit their Week 10 matchup against the Baltimore Ravens with a 6-3 record, they'll be in solid shape for the playoff picture. Beyond that, it's simply a matter of staying healthy and honing the offensive attack over the remainder of the season.
Allow me to illustrate my point. The Chargers earned 11 wins last season and found themselves in a Wild Card spot. It was an impressive feat given the injuries they faced along the offensive line. But did anyone truly consider them a Super Bowl contender entering the playoffs? They posted just three points against the New England Patriots in their Wild Card Round matchup. The offense, simply, wasn't good enough without their star tackles in the fold.
Even if Los Angeles finishes this season with 11 wins (or 10, as long as they make the playoffs), this season should not be considered a failure by any stretch of the imagination.
That's not to say the urgency isn't on for Harbaugh and company. It simply should be measured differently.
If the Chargers can enter the playoffs with a formidable offensive attack and realistically have a chance to earn multiple playoff wins, that will be a massive regular-season success. If they can actualize that into their first playoff win(s) since 2018, that will be the ultimate metric— no matter what their final win total comes to in the regular season.
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