As promising as the Los Angeles Chargers' prospects look heading into 2026, they'll need a bit of help from their division rivals if they want to claim their first division title since 2009.
The Denver Broncos are obviously the greatest obstacle in their path. They're returning much of their defensive core from their dominant 2025 campaign, and there's room for Bo Nix to continue to push the offense forward this season. There's certainly room for regression considering Denver's 11 one-score victories last season, but they should be considered the odds-on favorites for the AFC West title until further notice.
The Kansas City Chiefs, meanwhile, present a much wider range of outcomes. Although quarterback Patrick Mahomes has been cleared to practice ahead of training camp, Kansas City is hinging its resurgence on a reconstructed secondary and a host on uncertain developments from its offensive playmakers.
Brad Gagnon at Bleacher Report, in his recent record predictions piece for all 32 teams, isn't fully buying it. He cited the mediocre status of the Chiefs' offense— even when Mahomes has been healthy over the past few seasons— and the uncertainties on the defensive side of the ball in his decision to take Kansas City at under 10.5 wins.
"I just can't do it. It's scary to keep doubting the Chiefs considering their mystique, but this is a franchise desperately clinging to what's left of its dynasty... This scoring offense hasn't ranked higher than 15th since 2022, and the defense is more likely to fall than rise in 2026. It could get ugly." Brad Gagnon, Bleacher Report
As much room as there is for a resurgence for Kansas City in 2026, there's also room for another catastrophic downfall— and that leaves an avenue for the Chargers to carve out a stake in the AFC West race.
The Chiefs are entering 2026 with a highly uncertain ceiling— but a relatively low floor
Last season obviously didn't go according to plan for the Chiefs. While the offense was struggling to keep its head above water for much of the season even with Mahomes at full strength, the ACL tear the star quarterback suffered in Week 15 against the Chargers was essentially Kansas City's death blow. They finished the season with a 6-11 record, missing the playoffs for the first time since 2014.
Of course, last season wasn't necessarily the end of the Chiefs' era of competitiveness. They still have Mahomes under center, and their offensive talent can't just be cast to the side at this juncture.
But their success in 2026 will depend, in part, on a reconstructed secondary and the ability of Steve Spagnuolo to re-institute his 'controlled chaos' scheme among a host of new starters. Kansas City traded Trent McDuffie and lost Jaylen Watson in free agency to the Los Angeles Rams this offseason. They also lost safety Bryan Cook to the Cincinnati Bengals.
The addition of Mansoor Delane in the first round of the NFL Draft should be a major addition at outside corner, but there's still room for some major regression there. Even as the offense struggled, their defense was able to keep the team afloat over the first half of the season. There's no guarantee of that in 2026.
The offensive side of the ball presents its own host of issues for the Chiefs. Neither Rashee Rice nor Xavier Worthy, their two primary offensive playmakers as Travis Kelce continues to decline, have a particularly inspiring track record of consistency. While the addition of Kenneth Walker III should be a major boon for their backfield, many of the issues that resulted in their meager 4.2 yards per rushing attempt in 2025— including their interior protection— haven't really been mitigated.
There doesn't necessarily need to be a disastrous campaign in Kansas City. If the Chiefs are even a middling team, finishing with eight or nine wins in an increasingly competitive AFC West, the door will be open for the Chargers.
At this point, it feels relatively safe to bet on that.
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