The Los Angeles Chargers knew what they were getting when they selected Akheem Mesidor 22nd overall in the 2026 NFL Draft.
After losing Odafe Oweh, who signed a four-year, $96 million deal with the Washington Commanders in free agency this offseason, they needed someone who could step in immediately and provide disruptive pass-rush play alongside Tuli Tuipulotu and Khalil Mack. There are valid concerns about Mesidor's age, but the hope is that he's physically mature enough to present that immediately for Los Angeles.
ESPN's latest projections, though, according to a model put together by Senior Analyst Mike Clay, have Mesidor slated to earn just 4.9 sacks in 2026— a far cry from the 7.5 Oweh posted across just 12 games in a Chargers uniform in 2025.
Do the Chargers need Mesidor to replicate Oweh's production right away? Probably not. But they'll need him to have a highly impactful rookie campaign if they want their pass rush to be as viable as it was last season.
Chargers need immediate production out of Akheem Mesidor in 2026
Here's what Clay had to say about the overall trends surrounding rookie pass-rushers:
"Rookies are averaging 106.0 sacks per season over the past decade, but the past two seasons (84.5 in 2024 and 100.0 in 2025) have been far below that average... That's especially relevant considering that five edge rushers were drafted in the first round this year (all listed above) and is the reason why none of them is projected to clear 7.6 sacks. In fact, each sack projection above would rank in the top 25 among first-round picks over the past five years. All five edge rushers will likely be busy, but let's keep statistical expectations in check." Mike Clay, ESPN
As it stands, Clay has Mesidor ranked fourth in sack total among rookie pass-rushers, sitting only behind David Bailey, Malachi Lawrence, and Rueben Bain Jr. If he puts himself in this company by the end of his rookie season, it would be a successful campaign.
But the truth of Los Angeles' pass rush must be acknowledged. Tuipiulotu is an ascending star, having accumulated 13 sacks in 2026 and taken massive strides in his ability to get into the backfield and wreak havoc. But it's clear that Mack's production is waning. He missed four games due to injury in 2025, but he posted just 5.5 sacks across the 12 games he was healthy.
At the age of 35, there's room for that production to regress even further in 2026.
The reason Oweh's presence was so impactful was because the Chargers had three viable edge rushers they could turn to at any time to produce. If Mesidor is truly limited to just five sacks in his rookie campaign, there's room for a sharp drop-off from what we saw with Oweh in the fold last season.
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