The Los Angeles Chargers are decided underdogs as they prepare to face the New England Patriots on the road in their Wild Card matchup.
In many ways, some may even consider this season a lost cause already. They have suffered from abysmal health and performance on their offensive line, and their offensive attack as a whole has often looked stagnant as a result.
Even with the way their defense has played as of late, triumphing over one of the top passing offenses in the NFL in their own stadium will be no easy feat.
However, legendary Patriots coach Bill Belichick sees a path to victory for Los Angeles in spite of these struggles and limitations. It travels, predictably, through their defense.
The Chargers defense could grant them a positive game script vs. Patriots
Speaking on the "Let's Go!" podcast with Jim Gray, Belichick first acknowledged that the Chargers would likely be doomed if they fell behind early in the game. Los Angeles has struggled to throw the ball consistently all season, and they would have virtually no hope of climbing back into a playoff matchup purely through the air.
However, Belichick also acknowledged that the Chargers could have a serious chance as long as their defense is able to keep the game close:
""If [the Chargers] can play from ahead, get control of the game, make it a tight game; they certainly have the defense — and if they have enough of a running game, I think they would certainly have a chance.""Bill Belichick
This is a formula we have seen repeatedly from Los Angeles this year. The Chargers have had a top-five defense for much of the season, and Justin Herbert has been able to overcome many of the offense's limitations when given a chance to mount a game-winning or game-finishing drive.
This season, the Chargers have earned wins over the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Miami Dolphins, Pittsburgh Steelers, and Philadelphia Eagles using some version of this script.
In spite of the season-ending injury to Najee Harris and the lengthy absence that Omarion Hampton endured, Los Angeles has also maintained a solid run game. Against a shaky and banged-up Patriots front, this could allow them to control the game as long as they are not forced to go through the air.
Therefore, Los Angeles's key to success is preventing New England from jumping out to an early lead, grinding them down into a defensive slugfest at the earliest opportunity.
This will not be an easy task against a team that has scored 14 first-quarter touchdowns this season, but the Chargers will have a real chance at the upset if they can pull it off.
At least Bill Belichick thinks so.