After suffering the worst loss of the Jim Harbaugh era in Week 11, that being a dreadful 35-6 defeat to the Jacksonville Jaguars, the Los Angeles Chargers took their long-awaited and much-needed bye in Week 12 and then bounced back in Week 13 with a dominant 31-14 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders to up their record to 8-4.
Unfortunately, that win over the rival Raiders came with a cost, as Justin Herbert suffered a fractured metacarpal in his left hand (thankfully, his non-throwing hand), for which he underwent surgery on Monday. As of this writing, the plan is for Herbert to still suit up on Monday night when the defending Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles visit SoFi Stadium, and the Chargers obviously hope that remains the case as the week progresses, as they can't afford to take too many losses down the stretch.
Yes, the Chargers are 8-4 and sitting in the top wild-card slot in the AFC heading into Week 14. They're also still only two games back of the Denver Broncos in the AFC West race. And while those are clearly good things, especially since the Bolts have already beaten the Broncos once and will get another shot at them in Week 18, just take a look at the overall AFC playoff picture, and you'll see just how tight things are.
- New England Patriots (11-2, 1st AFC East)
- Denver Broncos (10-2, 1st AFC West)
- Jacksonville Jaguars (8-4, 1st AFC South)
- Baltimore Ravens (6-6, 1st AFC North)
- Los Angeles Chargers (8-4, 2nd AFC West)
- Indianapolis Colts (8-4, 2nd AFC South)
- Buffalo Bills (8-4, 2nd AFC East)
- Houston Texans (7-5, 3rd AFC South)
- Pittsburgh Steelers (6-6, 2nd AFC North)
- Kansas City Chiefs (6-6, 3rd AFC West)
- Miami Dolphins (5-7, 3rd AFC East)
- Cincinnati Bengals (4-8, 3rd AFC North)
- New York Jets (3-9, 4th AFC East)
- Cleveland Browns (3-9, 4th AFC North)
As you can see, the Chargers share the same 8-4 record with the other two teams currently occupying wild-card spots, those being the Indianapolis Colts and the Buffalo Bills. The reason why Los Angeles wins the three-way tiebreaker is due to having the best record of the three against AFC opponents, going 7-2 in conference games, with the Colts going 6-3 and the Bills going 5-3.
As you can also see, the top three teams currently on the outside looking in are all 6-6. And while a two-game cushion is nice with only five weeks to play, there is going to be all sorts of movement down the stretch. And given some of the matchups scheduled for Week 14, that movement is going to start on Sunday. So, let's have a quick look at the games the Bolts will be watching closely on Sunday before squaring off with the Eagles on Monday.
Cincinnati Bengals at Buffalo Bills
What's funny about the Bills right now is that they're the only reason the Chargers are in the No. 5 spot. Because, if Buffalo didn't have the same record as Los Angeles, the Bolts would lose a head-to-head tiebreaker with the Colts due to that 38-24 loss to Indy back in Week 7. So, on one hand, the Chargers might like seeing the Bills being that buffer.
On the other hand, however, which is the more realistic one, the Bolts have to root for Buffalo to lose, just as they have to root for any team close to them in the standings to lose. So, they should certainly be pulling for the Bengals here.
Indianapolis Colts at Jacksonville Jaguars
This Week 14 matchup is the first of the season between the Indianapolis Colts and Jacksonville Jaguars, with the second set for Week 17. As both are 8-4, the winner obviously sits in first place in the AFC South when it's over, with the loser going to the wild-card race.
The Chargers don't want any part of a head-to-head tiebreaker with either since they've lost to both, so this is a bit of a tricky situation, as they really don't have anyone to root for here. Perhaps that'll change a few weeks from now.
Pittsburgh Steelers at Baltimore Ravens
And here's another first-place battle, as the Baltimore Ravens and Pittsburgh Steelers are tied atop the AFC North at 6-6, with Baltimore currently owning the tiebreaker based on having a better record against common opponents.
Like the Colts and Jags, this is the first matchup between the two clubs, but the second matchup between these two rivals will take place in Week 18.
Now, one could easily assume that the Chargers (and perhaps every other team in the AFC) would prefer to see the Steelers in the postseason instead of the Ravens, as not many want to face Lamar Jackson and Derrick Henry if they get rolling down the stretch. Both teams looked bad in Week 13, so it's difficult to gauge how this one will play out on Sunday.
Regardless of the outcome, the Chargers will stay ahead of both the winner and the loser, no matter what happens against the Eagles.
Denver Broncos at Las Vegas Raiders
This is obviously the biggest no-brainer of the bunch, as the Chargers will be hoping the Raiders can somehow manage to pull off an upset here.
Houston Texans at Kansas City Chiefs
Stay with me on this one, Chargers fans, because I know the easy thing for you to say here is that you hope the Chiefs lose, which would drop them below .500, which is just unfathomable at this point in the season, as we're just not used to seeing that this late.
Here's the thing, though. As you saw above, the Texans are just one game back of the Bolts at 7-5, thus meaning a win obviously puts them at 8-5 and right on the Chargers' heels, right? If the Chiefs win, though, both Kansas City and Houston go to 7-6. So, even if the Bolts lose to Phillly in this scenario, they're still ahead of both instead of being tied with the Texans at 8-5.
Just something to think about, which I'm sure the Chargers will be themselves when watching this one play out in primetime on Sunday Night Football.