LA Chargers: Game breakdown and prediction for Week 16 vs. Broncos


Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers take on the Denver Broncos in Week 16.

Week 15 was an emotional victory for Justin Herbert and the LA Chargers as they slipped past the Raiders in overtime to move to 5-9 on the season.

Now, the Bolts are set up to finish as high as 7-9 if they can somehow with both of their last two games against divisional opponents, one of which is the Denver Broncos this week.

Look, I know a lot of people are giving up on the Chargers now that they’re out of the playoff picture, but this is a time many will look at next year if this Bolts team starts winning at a more consistent pace. A strong close to the 2020 season, especially one for Justin Herbert, is going to go a long way in shaping what the offseason looks like and what momentum this team has rolling into 2021.

We were able to nail down the game last week hitting on all three of the Chargers moneyline, Chargers +3 spread, and over 53. Now, I’m looking to nail it down again this week.

I think this is a game where the Chargers are going to crush it. They already had the heartbreaking loss to these Broncos way back in the middle of the season after blowing a huge lead in the second half. I feel very good about them coming out this time and winning this game decisively.

Maybe not blow the Broncos’ doors off, but good enough to win their 6th and cover their 2nd game of the season. The Bots are 1-4-1 right now against the spread as favorites and this will most likely be their last chance to cover a spread as favorites this year with KC up next week.

They’ve clearly been a better underdog than favorite this year, but now they’re in a matchup where they can absolutely smash.

Denver got embarrassed last week at home. Typically, teams that got blown out at home the previous week come to play the following week (keep an eye on the Rams this week in that regard). But we’re talking about a Broncos team that I believe the Chargers are better than and are going to be looking to avenge themselves against for their heartbreaking loss way back when.

Recent history has not been kind to the Chargers in this matchup. They’ve lost 4 of 5, 11 of 14, and 15 of 19 overall to Denver and 7 of 9 at home to the Broncos as well.

But Justin Herbert is another animal. Denver beat up on Philip Rivers. They did not beat up on Herbert regardless of their comeback victory. “Herbie Fully Loaded’ as he’s become known to be called by nobody until now is a different animal entirely.

Herbert put up 278 yards and 3 touchdowns last time out against Denver, and if we look at his AFC West stats overall, he’s completing 67% of his passes, has a TD-INT ratio of 8-3, and posts a passer rating of 101.8.

History says Denver wins this game, but that same history long predates Justin Herbert outside of their first matchup this year. I think we see who the real better quarterback is in this matchup between Herbert and Drew Lock and the Bolts have themselves another feel-good game.

I’m taking the Chargers in this one 28-24. Give me the Bolts -3; they cover 3 points in 83% of their wins over Denver and 79% of their home wins over the Broncos. Give me the over of 49 to be hit as well; 32% of games in this series have gone over 49- that’s a big total and a nice percentage hitting.

I said the Chargers were going to go 6-10 before this season started and now they’ve played themselves into position to accomplish just that. I think they win this week and lose next with great performances in each.

How the Week 16 result impacts the draft stock. Next

The Chargers are going to be a huge dark horse pick next year to be a playoff team and that narrative is being shaped right now with every game the Chargers win late in the season.