LA Chargers: Justin Herbert will smash this rookie passing record


Justin Herbert finds himself in the perfect position to break the rookie touchdown record. Can he do it for the Chargers in the last six games?

Justin Herbert recorded his 20th, 21st, and 22nd passing touchdowns of the season on Sunday. That continued his historic rookie season that is on pace to shatter records:

Justin Herbert is on pace to be the best rookie QB in NFL history:

Herbert’s 2020 Pace:

397 Completions4,498 Pass Yds37 Pass TD

ALL would be rookie records #BoltUp

— CBS Sports HQ (@CBSSportsHQ) November 23, 2020

While I don’t think Herbert will hit 37 passing touchdowns, it’s become clear that he will pass the 27 touchdown record that was set by Baker Mayfield in 2018. The previous record-holder was Peyton Manning, so Herbert finds himself in some good company.

As he stands just six touchdowns from breaking the record, Herbert only needs to average one touchdown per game for the rest of the season to make history. In his first nine games, the former Oregon quarterback has averaged 2.44 touchdowns per game.

The state of the running game may also force Herbert to continue throwing it more. Los Angeles hit a season-low in rushing yards yesterday and decided to sling the ball nearly 50 times.

Some porous defenses are coming down the pike for the Bolts as well. Buffalo has certainly underperformed expectations from a defensive standpoint, so I expect nothing less than a shootout in that game.

Quite a few other upcoming opponents are struggling on defense as well, including Atlanta, Las Vegas, Kansas City. Even New England hasn’t been on their A-game recently.

He likely won’t catch Andrew Luck‘s rookie passing yards record though. Luck had about 4700 yards in his first season. It wouldn’t be impossible for Herbert to catch that as he sits at 2700 passing yards now, but it would take six successive 300-400 yards efforts. Not impossible, but unlikely.

Even without the rookie passing yards record, the rookie passing touchdown record would still be a massive achievement. It wouldn’t just be a strong boost to his ROTY campaign, but also a building block for future seasons.

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Many of us here at Bolt Beat and across the NFL sphere didn’t think Herbert would touch the field in his rookie year, so him being in this position is baffling, to say the least. As he continues to prove doubters wrong, his name is being written in the record books along the way.