LA Chargers News

Chargers players fantasy outlook in 2019 season

DENVER, COLORADO - DECEMBER 30: Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 and wide receiver Mike Williams #81 of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrate a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on December 30, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
DENVER, COLORADO - DECEMBER 30: Quarterback Philip Rivers #17 and wide receiver Mike Williams #81 of the Los Angeles Chargers celebrate a touchdown against the Denver Broncos at Broncos Stadium at Mile High on December 30, 2018 in Denver, Colorado. (Photo by Matthew Stockman/Getty Images)
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LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 23: Mike Williams #81 and Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers line up before the snap against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 23, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
LOS ANGELES, CA – SEPTEMBER 23: Mike Williams #81 and Keenan Allen #13 of the Los Angeles Chargers line up before the snap against the Los Angeles Rams at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum on September 23, 2018 in Los Angeles, California. (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)

Chargers wide receivers

Keenan Allen

Allen is one of the best wide receivers in the league, but that is not reflected in the world of fantasy football. Allen is being drafted at an ADP of 27, making him the 11th WR. In PPR formats he sees a slight jump two spots up, overtaking T.Y. Hilton and Adam Thielen.

Allen is a great possession receiver who can post 1,000-yard seasons when healthy and catch around a hundred passes a season. What holds him back from joining the group of elite fantasy wide receivers is his touchdown tally, scoring just six touchdowns for two consecutive years.

Six is not a bad number, but is not enough to join the first and second round wide receivers who normally score 10+ touchdowns like DeAndre Hopkins or Davante Adams.

But to draft Allen in the third round is excellent value because teams know exactly what they’re going to get from the veteran: A very consistent 1,000-yard and 100-reception wide receiver who very rarely has a bad game, and can be started every week with no fear.

Mike Williams

The other fantasy-relevant wide receiver for the Chargers is former first-round pick Mike Williams. Last season, he broke onto the scene even with limited opportunities, racking up 664 yards, 43 receptions, and a whooping 10 receiving touchdowns on just 66 targets. In fact, in the last 10 years, only two wide receivers have been able to have a top 20 fantasy season with less than 79 targets: Tyler Lockett and Williams, both in 2018.

Another thing to note from last season is that Rivers and Williams combined to make the third-most extraordinary QB-WR tandem, posting a 12.4 percent catch rate above expectation according to Next Gen Stats.

If that wasn’t enough, the departure of Tyrell Williams and of Antonio Gates (probably) leaves a combined 110 targets up for grabs. Hunter Henry should be first in line in absorbing the most of those targets, but it’s safe to say Williams earned himself enough looks from Rivers to predict he will probably see 90-100 targets in 2019.

Touchdown regression tends to follow such efficient seasons such as the one Williams had in 2018, where he finished as the 20th highest scoring wide receiver. Even if regression does come, he should more than make up for it in the increase in receiving yards and catches.

He is currently going at an ADP of 62 (66 in PPR), so he is appropriately valued as the 24th-highest select wide receiver.

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